Loss to Philly Shows Ravens Exactly Where they Stand: Not Quite

Ravens Pass-Catchers Through 13 Games

Usually I’m upset when the Ravens lose, but against the Eagles I was surprisingly philosophical. Almost detached. For one thing, the Eagles are almost perfectly constructed to beat this year’s Ravens.  Dominant personnel on the D-line, a RB who demands the defense’s full attention (an MVP candidate no less!) and a “true #1 WR” who’s a physical mismatch against most DBs.  For another thing, they came into the game red hot.   For a third thing, I thought coming into the game that the Ravens were starting to stumble a little, coming off three straight taut & emotional games (Bengals, Steelers, Chargers).  I’ve been getting the sense for a couple weeks that they need their bye week.  Whereas the Eagles coasted into this game without having been really challenged over the past month.

What surprised me about the Eagles was how good their secondary was.  The Todd Monken offense seemed to generate lots of open looks for Ravens receivers the last couple months, but Sunday it seemed like every Lamar Jackson throw was into triple coverage.  They were able to really stick with all the Ravens receivers.

And with all that, the Ravens had a solid chance to steal the win.  The losing margin was five in a game where missed kicks cost seven points.  If Justin Tucker had gone 1-for-2 on the Field Goals and hit the extra point, then on that final drive the Ravens would’ve been down only one, needing just a FG to win.  Yes, the Ravens had great fumble luck in the game, recovering all their drops; but on the other hand they put the ball on the ground in ways they haven’t in a couple months, and the Eagles also recovered their own two fumbles.

Despite a withering pass rush and great coverage, Lamar had a fine day passing: 64% and a passer rating of 101.  It was the passes not thrown that were the issue.  Factor in the sacks (3 for 31) and Lamar had 5.3 Net Yards per Attempt on the day.  That figure would be 30th in the league (tied with Will Levis) if it were for the full season.  Lamar leads the league in that stat (still), but the Eagles pass rush took it away.  Non-Lamar rushers averaged 3.6 yards-per-carry.  The Eagles D-line won the game.

It’s interesting how they got that D-line; it contrasts with the way the Ravens work.  The Eagles stacked strength over strength in building that line.  They drafted Jordan Davis #13th overall in 2022, then they double-dipped, drafting Jalen Carter #9 overall in 2023.  To contrast with the Ravens – well for one thing, the Ravens haven’t drafted that high since 2016, when they took Ronnie Stanley #6 overall.  The closest they’ve come is 14th overall in 2022 (Kyle Hamilton; one pick after Davis!), and 16th overall in 2017 (Marlon Humphrey).

But for another, I can’t see the Ravens double-dipping at a position in the first round back-to-back that way.  The Ravens draft for breadth.  They spread talent around the various position groups.  They team-build to be pretty strong everywhere; not “lopsided” (strong in one group and weak in another).  You can see that even in this year’s draft.  They went into the draft with a huge need on the Offensive Line.  They drafted one O-lineman, Roger Rosengarten.  He looks like he has a bright future; but I thought they needed more, and expected them to double-dip in round 3 or 4.  Instead, they drafted a D-end, a D-back and a project Wide Receiver in those rounds.

Strangely, the Ravens do double-dip at Tight End, regularly!  They’ve done it in three different drafts.  In 2010 they drafted Ed Dickson in the 3rd and Dennis Pitta in the 4th.  In 2018 they drafted Hayden Hurst in the 1st and Mark Andrews in the 3rd.  In 2022 they drafted Charlie Kolar in the 4th and Isaiah Likely later in the 4th.

Bizarre.  More bizarre is the fact that each time, the second Tight End has been the more productive one for them.  It’s like they have to draft two to get one.  Maybe that’s the result of some kind of strange deal Ozzie Newsome made to have his Hall Of Fame career at Tight End.  “Okay, you will be a HOFer, but the trade-off is, your organization will have to draft two to get one for the rest of eternity.”  I wouldn’t blame Ozzie for taking that kind of deal, honestly.

Anyway:

You can see the two different philosophies at play in their respective Wide Receiver groups.  The Eagles have a dominant WR who is a mismatch problem (who they traded for!) and some complementary players.  (Well, DeVonta Smith is more than just a “complementary” receiver, but he was out.)  The Ravens have a committee of “#2 receivers.”  The committee has performed very well!  Lamar and the offense are having a great year.  But there’s always the question: when the chips are down and you gotta have a play, who’s going to make it?  On the Eagles, it could be A.J. Brown or it could be Saquon Barkley or it could be the Quarterback.  On the Ravens, it has to be Lamar.

By the way, did you see what Saquon said about Lamar?

I’ve got so much respect for Lamar. He’s a two-time MVP for a reason. [He’s] probably the best player I’ve seen with my own eyes. Whether it’s on film or seeing him live, just the things he’s able to do.

Wow!

The Ravens philosophy has worked well for them over many years – 25 years.  They are almost always in contention.  The Eagles philosophy has worked well for them too.  They’ve embraced a little more volatility than the Ravens – they went 4-11-1 in 2020 – but they’ve also been to two Super Bowls in the last eight years (won 2017, lost 2022) and could well go again this year.

So I think the Eagles have a stronger overall roster than the Ravens.  And I think they have strengths that correspond to some Ravens vulnerabilities.  But I would not necessarily expect a rematch to have the same result.  And a rematch could happen!  These two teams could meet in the Super Bowl.  The Eagles could certainly get there; they’re a favorite to reach their Conference Championship Game.  And the Ravens could get there:

View on Threads

DVOA gives this a 6% chance of being the Super Bowl matchup.  If it were to happen, the Ravens would definitely have a puncher’s chance, at least.  This loss would give them excellent preparation.  Two more months for the Offensive Line to grow; two more months for the Defense to jell; two more months for Lamar to simmer and Todd Monken to plan.

Useful game, even with the loss.  Lets you know where your team stands relative to the championship contenders.  Pretty close, but need a little more.

Tuckered Out

In the family group text-chat after the game, someone said “I predict the Tucker section of this week’s column to be extensive.”  I said nah, there isn’t much to say, and I don’t know anything about kickers.

Well, someone who does know about kicking did have stuff to say.  Chris Kluwe was a Vikings punter from 2005 to 2012.  Since then he’s been an outspoken advocate for gay rights and other social issues; coaching his local high school; playing semipro soccer in LA; and an avid gamer (his handle references Warcraft).

He was asked on social media about Tucker, and he had some observations:

What Kluwe means when he says Tucker is hitting the ball “later in his motion” – here’s a pic of Tucker making a kick, from a few years ago.  See how his leg is behind him:

Man must have amazing flexibility and elastic strength in that hip flexor muscle.

In the pic, he’s about to turn his hips to generate the power, and the leg will pull through after the hips.  It’s very similar to a golf swing.  What Kluwe is saying is that Tucker’s leg is traveling through the strike zone a bit more slowly than it used to.  His hips are turning at the same rate, the mechanics are the same; but the elasticity of the muscle is just a little less strong than it used to be. That means the foot is hitting the ball just an instant later than it used to; Tucker’s hips are a little further through the turn than they used to be when the foot hits.  End result, the kick is pulled left.

I find all that very persuasive; knowledgeable source, clear & logical explanation.  And terribly sad.

I’m sure that the career Tucker has aspired to is Adam Vinatieri’s, who kicked until he was 47.  Tuck has mentioned Vinatieri once or twice in interviews.  There’s an irony to the idea that the very thing that made Tucker special (the hip turn giving his explosive power, the distance on his accurate kicks) is the thing that will rob him of his longevity.  I hate it.

In general, great athletes are the last to know when they’re done.  Witness Brett Favre’s retirements and comebacks.  Look at Aaron Rodgers.  There’s a million examples.  Those guys didn’t get to be where they were by accepting conventional wisdom and not overcoming hurdles.  But I think a kicker is a little different.  It’s a relentlessly analytical position these days: motion capture etc.  They break things down into the tiniest details.  If Tuck decides over the offseason that he can be good again, I am damn well not betting against the man.  But, man, he really might be done.

Of course there’s another possibility:

Get Bugs Bunny and Michael Jordan on the case!

Stats

Here are your stats for the game:

(Data from PFR)

Rashod Bateman left the game with a knee injury after 29 snaps (40%) and no targets.  Harbs said that it’s “not a long-term thing” so maybe we’ll see him in a couple weeks.

Zay Flowers with two explosives again, his 6th multi-explosive game of the last nine.  Normally a 3-for-7 day would not give you a QS, but the explosives more than offset for his yards-per.

Mark Andrews continues his hot streak, now running to nine games:

If that YTS looks different to you from last week, I screwed up this table in last week’s column.  Had the Yards-per-target wrong.  But 6 is a very fine YTS; league average is around 4.  Success Rate 76%, and 7 QS.  Very very fine performance.

Season stats & Leaderboard

Here are your full-season stats to date:

(Data from PFR except last 3 cols)

Man, Tylan Wallace!  If Bateman has to miss any time, he’s my nominee for getting those snaps.

Flowers is 7th in the league in yards, 16th in receptions.  Bateman is 13th in yards-per-target, but if he has to miss significant time he might fall out of the qualifying list.  Mark Andrews is 29th overall in Yards-per-target, but 5th among Tight Ends.  He’s 9th overall in Success Rate, 5th among TEs.

Lamar has fallen out of the #1 spot in Passing Yardage and Passing TDs (behind Joe Burrow).  He’ll fall farther during the bye week.  He still leads the league in TD%, Passer Rating and Net Yds per Attempt.

Your Ravens are still the #1 offense by DVOA.  They’re #1 in Yards-per-play (though no longer beating the Greatest Show On Turf Rams), and they’re #1 Red Zone TD%.  They’re 2nd in Passing YTS, 3rd in 3rd-down conversions, and 4th in points-per-drive.  They’re among the top ten best offenses that DVOA has ever tracked through 13 games:

View on Threads

With the loss and the performance the Ravens playoff odds by DVOA have ticked back down to 98.6%, which of course is still excellent, and they’ve dropped from #2 to #4 to win the Super Bowl.  Buffalo moves into the #2 spot.

Next Up

Bye

Bye love!

Man, do the Ravens need the bye.  Honestly they could’ve used it a week or two earlier; but here it is now, and it can be a springboard to the final four-game sprint.

Then

Oh man.  Lamar said it:

“My momma just cussed me out, so I’m mad. We’re going to get after it. I’m not going to lie to you; we’re going to get after it. I can’t wait for this bye to get on. We have the Giants coming up. I’m ready to go. I’m just ready to go.”

With Lamar mad, I feel sorry for the 2-10 Giants.  They already had his attention; remember they were the only NFC team Lamar had lost to (before Sunday).  Now Lamar is pissed off.  And has an extra week to prepare!

Ordinarily I would be worried about a team that has Dexter Lawrence and Brian Burns.  That’s exactly the type of talent on the defensive front that has given the Ravens trouble all season.  But now I see a pissed-off Lamar delivering a statement game.  I’d be shocked if the Ravens score less than 30; frankly I expect Lamar to drop 40 on them like a bomb.  And then not celebrate one damn bit.  He’s focused.

Enjoy the bye!

The post Loss to Philly Shows Ravens Exactly Where they Stand: Not Quite appeared first on Russell Street Report.

Source: https://russellstreetreport.com/2024/12/05/street-talk/ravens-eagles-justin-tucker/