NICS December, 2024 Gun Sales and 2024 total Predictions Confirmed

NSSF uses a slightly different method to estimate gun sales

The National Instant background Check System Checks (NICS) recorded the sixth highest gun sales on record for December, 2024.

Last Month this Correspondent predicted, on AmmoLand: December sales would be about 1.6 million. Gun sales for 2024 would be about 14.6 million. From the previous article:

 ”This correspondent expects a drop in gun sales in 2024, to a bit less than what was recorded in 2022, to about 1.6 million sales.”

 Estimated gun sales for December, 2024 were 1.62 million.

“This correspondent’s prediction is 2024 will have had 14.6 million guns recorded as sold by NICS.”

Estimated gun sales for all of 2024 were 14.68 million.

Comparison of gun sales by type, 2023 to 2024

The gun sales for December of 2024 were the seventh highest on record. The total gun sales for 2024, as estimated from recorded NICS sales, are the eighth highest since NICS started records in 1998. 

December is usually the strongest month for gun sales through the NICS system. Gun sales dropped off in December, most likely because of the election of former and future president Donald Trump. Donald Trump has always campaigned as being friendly to and protective of, the Second Amedment. Major campaign supporter of Donald Trump, Elon Musk, transformed the media landscape with his purchase of Twitter. Musk has been a strong and vocal supporter of the Second Amendment.  Donald Trump’s three Supreme Court appointments made all the difference in restoring the Second Amendment to the same level of official recognition as the First Amendment.  That fight continues with a few states defiant of the Supreme Court and the Constitution.

People considering purchasing firearms no longer needed to fear the political attacks of the Biden administration the Democratic party and the “old, dominant media”. The “old dominate media” showed it was no longer the dominant or mainstream purveyor of news, able to gatekeep information and create the narrative it desired for the nation. Without the fear of the Democratic party, or the fear-mongering of the “old dominant media”, the urgency of firearm purchases has receded.

Some market segments may be saturated. When Barack Obama was elected, the estimated number of “modern firearms ” (1899-2008), privately owned in the United States of America was 308 million. In the last 16 years, another 208 million have been added to the private stock. 

Constant dollar prices for practical and effective firearms, have decreased by roughly 75% in the last 120 years. Quality ammunition prices have dropped by about 90% or more in constant dollars. Anyone who can legally own a gun, in 90% of American states, can own one and a hundred rounds of ammunition for a weeks work at a minimum wage job.  In a few states and cities, the right to own a firearm is still limited by legislation.  Those unconstitutional statutes are being challenged in court. 

The states in defiance include the high population states of California, Illinois, and New York. When court cases prevent those states from unconstitutionally infringing on Second Amendment rights, expect a significant increase gun sales, to meet the pent up demand.

December of 2024 was the 65th consecutive month where gun sales, as estimated by the National Shooting Sports Foundation, totaled over one million a month.

©2024 by Dean Weingarten: Permission to share is granted when this notice and link are included.

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