Move? Fuhgeddaboudit.

Those delusional, whiny kiddos who think their parents stole all the houses may be, ah, correct.

Here’s a sobering stat: 61% of current homeowners says they’re not selling. A big hunk say they’ll stay put for at least a decade. The rest say ‘never’ will they move again. It’s an American survey (done for Redfin by Ipsos), but likely valid in frosty Canada as well. The report also says only 8% would consider selling within the next three to five years.

So, combine that with abysmal housing starts numbers across Canada, and today’s economic news and you can see where housing is headed. Not down.

By the way, why don’t people want to move?

Four in ten have paid off their place and understand a simple fact: if they sold now, even with a big profit, they’d be buying something else at a nosebleed price, plus looking at obscene real estate fees and (probably) hefty land transfer taxes.

Meanwhile homeowners with mortgages in place don’t relish the thought of passing a stress test on a new property or signing up at a higher rate than the one they have. Finally, face it, owners who bought pre-pandemic – a once-a-century event that wildly inflated real estate – have been property bandidos. They own what they would not be able to buy again.

Source: Redfin

Now, today’s news. It cements all of this.

There will be no interest rate cuts or mortgage reductions coming in January. Maybe not for a while after that. Perhaps (gulp) not even for the rest of the year – depending on what unhinged Tariff Man does to us.

The labour market is hopping in both Canada and the States. America has just seen the biggest payroll gain since last winter. The unemployment rate has dropped again to almost 4% (near a 50-year low) making a mockery of Trump’s campaign rhetoric about a wasted economy. Incomes are rising. The number of jobless fell by 235,000 and household employment increased by 478,000. “This was a robust Employment Report that reinforces the resilience of the U.S. labor market and expansion and will keep the Fed on hold in January as they try to bring inflation pressures down,” says economist Scott Anderson.

In short, Tariff Man is inheriting a massively strong economy. Jobs up, GDP growing, corporate profits ducky, dollar popping, incomes growing. And now he’s planning on adding a boatload of stimulus through big corporate tax cuts, reducing personal taxes (none on tips, overtime or wrinkly pogey), less regulation and a protectionist wall of duties.

So, the Fed hits the brakes. No more rate cuts. Inflation’s coming back, baby.

In Canada, ditto.

We created almost 91,000 new jobs last month – the most in two years and enough to drop the jobless rate here, too. Most were full-time. Total hours worked went up. Average wages are growing at 3.8% a year – about double the current inflation rate.

“Employment gains were broad-based across sectors,” says economist Dug Porter, “with a 12 of 16 seeing job increases, and six of those with advances of 10,000 or more—so, well-balanced, and no flukes.”

Believe it or not, Trudeau-haters, but employment growth in the last 12 months has exceeded that of the US, relative to populations. We added 413,000 jobs, while the workforce grew by 662,000. Now that immigration numbers have been hacked, the outlook improves more. But rate cuts are fading. “The solid job gains will prompt some meaningful doubt on whether the Bank of Canada will cut again in January following the hyper aggressive 100 bps of cuts in Q4,” adds Porter. “The fact that the Fed looks to move to the sidelines for a spell, and the Canadian dollar is struggling mightily may also chill the BoC for now.”

Now we turn to January 20th. A trade war between Canada and the US, two of the most successful trading partners on the planet, looms. It could change everything. Central banks are going into turtle mode until the battle landscape is understood. We could be forced into recession by Tarff Man. We could well see inflation surge as our dollar is whacked and retaliatory duties making US goods more costly. The Bank of Canada will be torn between lowering rates to fight the downturn or raising them to stem resurgent inflation. Or, probably, doing nothing.

Meanwhile those selfish GenXers and fading Boomers will relish their garages and backyards, hang on tight, and let the kids think PP will solve the problem. Blame The Man. It’s worked so far.

About the picture: It’s time to remind you, says Cody the Chow, that Canada is not for sale. It’s not for intimitation, annexation or economic enforcement. No 51st state. No surrender.  The giant flag will go back up on the side of the house this summer, and all the summers following. Grrr.

To be in touch or send a picture of your beast, email to ‘garth@garth.ca’.

Source: https://www.greaterfool.ca/2025/01/10/move-fuhgeddaboudit/