Trump's trade war may give us a new data-point
Trump seems to have fired the first salvos of a new global trade war. Does he imagine, as did Putin with his shooting war, that opponents will rapidly fold and it’ll all be over in days or weeks? Well, maybe. But Colombia might not have set the pattern.
Old Pa Drew was in the international foodstuffs game and, having been a WW2 soldier in his time, brought me up to the slogan “trade is better than war“: and I’m a free-trader. Well, but it was never a cure-all, as I readily admit.
On the other side of the account, history records nations who viewed sea-faring merchant activity as the work of the devil, and sought to ban trading altogether. Which is a debate we perennially return to here at C@W in rather more subtle form: what’s the appropriate degree of dependency on trade, as opposed to national self sufficiency? There’s no scientific way of resolving this question, even though there are metrics one might try to deploy.
In any event, some trade-dependencies are faut-de-mieux: I was once posed a deliberately provocative question in a seminar by a Chinese energy economist, relating to Europe’s dependency on cross-border electricity trade to keep our highly interconnected grids functioning: this was surely a major strategic weakness and a Very Bad Thing, she demanded. I politely replied that, yes, sometimes import dependency can work against you, and that *ahem* some countries were dependent on imports for their oil …
Anyhow: the rationale for trade is, of course, that it engenders efficiencies. The Trump Trade War might just give us some hard data on just how costly are the inefficiencies his stymying of free-flow might bring about.
Then again, maybe everyone hastens to do his bidding…
Looking forward to hearing from some of you supporters of mercantilism and self-sufficiency out there. (I’m caricaturing a bit, I know.)
ND
Source: http://www.cityunslicker.co.uk/2025/02/trumps-trade-war-may-give-us-new-data.html
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