Epochal change in our economic situation
What are the epochal economic changes in my lifetime? I’m no student of macroeconomics, as any reader here will know, so I don’t have a ready list. The rise of China comes first to mind, along with its concomitant, the (relative) de-industrialisation of the West, and its precursor, the collapse of (left-wing / doctrinal) communism. The oil crises of the 1970s. Economic migration towards the West and the suppression of labour costs. And … economic “neoliberalism”? The period of the “great moderation”? – maybe. The banking crisis 2007-09? – not really: what changed? Any others people care to nominate? [I'm not looking for lists of new technologies here.]
Anyhow, now we have a serious new candidate: the Keynsian turn of Germany announced just days ago, which is probably just the cornerstone of the EU letting rip, as many in the EC and several member countries have wanted to for decades now. So much latent borrowing power! Assuming it actually happens as presaged, expenditure on weaponry (of course) but also infrastructure, stands to become a truly massive boom, with the added twist that there could be a strong strategic reluctance to outsource all this upsurge in manufacturing and construction to China.
The markets don’t think it all looks so obviously great for the USA, either: are we seeing the turning-point in a 25-year bull run on the DJ, and maybe early suggestions of the USD going out of favour? US recession, even, as the tariffs bite? Nice one, Donald – though at least there will be plenty of ongoing demand for his natural gas.
Writing as a non-economist, I’d say that the whole thing also sounds rather inflationary, too – for all of us. The older I get, the gladder I am for my substantial inflation-hedge.
What do we all reckon, at this critical juncture?
ND
PS – did you notice the Irish offered themselves as part of the Macron/Starmer coalition of the willing?! See, this is real !
Source: http://www.cityunslicker.co.uk/2025/03/epochal-change-in-our-economic-situation.html
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