ES Morning Update March 5th 2025
Another big flush yesterday, which got really close to hitting the 200 day SMA, and we bounced hard until 3:30 pm EST before another dump, but it was for a higher low. Ironically there was a FP on the SPY put out right before 2pm that pointed to that pullback low. So the market is telling everyone where the targets are at, but not the timing. Here’s a chart of the SPY with the fake prints on it…
You can see the many FP’s on the prior day as well, which I think will be targets for the rally today and/or tomorrow. I think we will see 589.07 today, then pullback some and then go for the 594.22 FP after that, which will probably be on Thursday. That should do it for the rally and Friday we should start down again. Target would be a retest of the low from yesterday but I don’t see it hitting as fast as that move did.
Most likely it will have some up’s and down’s in it and the likely bottom will be mid next week. We have the CPI on Wednesday, so that could be it, or the government shutdown date on Friday? One or the other should put in the low and from the looks of the daily chart I don’t expect to see it go much lower, which is why I lean toward a double bottom. The RSI is getting down there where we should get a nice multi-day rally, instead of just 1-2 day squeezes. We’ll cross that road when we get there but I don’t see a crash.
Have a blessed day.
Source: http://reddragonleo.com/2025/03/05/es-morning-update-march-5th-2025/
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