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Why the market won't crash from here

Sunday, March 16, 2025 14:33

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Preface: Explaining our market timing models

We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.

The Trend Asset Allocation Model is an asset allocation model that applies trend-following principles based on the inputs of global stock and commodity prices. This model has a shorter time horizon and tends to turn over about 4-6 times a year. The performance and full details of a model portfolio based on the out-of-sample signals of the Trend Model can be found here.

My inner trader uses a trading model, which is a blend of price momentum (is the Trend Model becoming more bullish, or bearish?) and overbought/oversold extremes (don’t buy if the trend is overbought, and vice versa). Subscribers receive real-time alerts of model changes, and a hypothetical trading record of the email alerts is updated weekly here. The hypothetical trading record of the trading model of the real-time alerts that began in March 2016 is shown below.

The latest signals of each model are as follows:

Ultimate market timing model: Buy equities (Last changed from “sell” on 28-Jul-2023)*
Trend Model signal: Neutral (Last changed from “bullish” on 15-Nov-2024)*
Trading model: Bullish (Last changed from “neutral” on 28-Feb-2025)*

* The performance chart and model readings have been delayed by a week out of respect to our paying subscribers.

Update schedule: I generally update model readings on my site on weekends. I am also on X/Twitter at @humblestudent and on BlueSky at @humblestudent.bsky.social. Subscribers receive real-time alerts of trading model changes, and a hypothetical trading record of those email alerts is shown here.

Subscribers can access the latest signal in real time here.

A Confirmed 5% Canary Warning

The S&P 500 flashed an Andrew Thrasher 5% Confirmed Canary warning last week, which is defined as “the underlying index declines 5% within 15 days from its 52-week high, and closes under 200 dma for two consecutive days”. The signal is based on a research paper that won the 2023 Charles Dow Award.

If history is any guide, subsequent drawdowns have been higher than average (green bars).

Does this mean it’s time to assume a position of maximum defensive portfolio positioning?

The full post can be found here.

Source: http://humblestudentofthemarkets.blogspot.com/2025/03/why-market-wont-crash-from-here.html

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Before It’s News® is a community of individuals who report on what’s going on around them, from all around the world. Anyone can join. Anyone can contribute. Anyone can become informed about their world. "United We Stand" Click Here To Create Your Personal Citizen Journalist Account Today, Be Sure To Invite Your Friends.

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