Does This Chart Show That The Recession They Have Been Planning Has Already Begun?

Have you noticed that now there is a lot of chatter about how “Trump’s policies” threaten to plunge the U.S. economy into a recession?  The messaging that we are getting from so many prominent voices is so similar that one would be tempted to think that they are all getting their talking points from the same source.  Is some sort of a coordinated effort taking place behind the scenes?  Without a doubt, our economy is in really big trouble right now.  Our economic momentum was taking us in the wrong direction during the final stages of the Biden administration, and in recent weeks our problems have clearly accelerated.  About a month ago, I suggested that those that control the levers of financial power were up to something.  Could it be possible that what they have been planning is now playing out right in front of our eyes?

Within the past week, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model has gone into a nosedive.

Honestly, I have never seen anything like this.

If you can believe it, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model is now projecting that U.S. GDP will shrink by 2.8 percent on an annualized basis during the first quarter of 2025…

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2025 is -2.8 percent on March 3, down from -1.5 percent on February 28. After this morning’s releases from the US Census Bureau and the Institute for Supply Management, the nowcast of first-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and real private fixed investment growth fell from 1.3 percent and 3.5 percent, respectively, to 0.0 percent and 0.1 percent.

I have been arguing that the U.S. economy has been heading into recession territory for quite some time.

But the shift that we are witnessing in the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model is like something out of a science fiction novel.  Just look at this chart…

It is almost as if someone flipped a switch and decided that it was time for the numbers to show that a recession has started.

Of course the truth is that we have been living through an economic horror show for years, and now the economic figures are becoming extremely dismal.

At this point, even CNN is admitting that our economy “is looking less and less stable by the day”…

The health of the US economy is looking less and less stable by the day.

Layoffs are rising. Consumer spending — the backbone of the economy — unexpectedly dropped in January. Consumer confidence has plunged. A key GDP forecast suddenly turned negative. And extreme fear is back on Wall Street, with stocks sliding last month.

All of that is true.

Yes, consumer spending really is going down.  In fact, we just witnessed the largest month over month drop in retail sales since January 2024…

New data out Friday showed retail sales declined more than expected in the first month of 2025.

Headline retail sales fell 0.9% in January, more than the 0.2% decline economists had expected, according to Bloomberg data. This marked the largest month-over-month decline in retail sales since January 2024.

We are also seeing subprime delinquencies spike.  In fact, the delinquency rate for subprime auto loans that are at least 60 days delinquent just hit the highest level of all time…

60+ day auto loan delinquencies in the subprime cohort (less credit-worthy borrowers) hit 6.56% in December 2024—the highest ever recorded. That’s up from 6.01% in November 2024 and 6.27% in 2023.

And as I have repeatedly tried to explain to my readers, the housing market has already fallen into a depression.

In January, pending home sales dropped to an all time record low…

Contracts to buy previously owned homes fell to a record low in January as prospective buyers were constrained by higher mortgage rates and house prices.

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) said on Thursday that its Pending Home Sales Index, which is based on signed contracts, declined by 4.6% last month to 70.6, an all-time low.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast contracts, which become sales after a month or two, falling by 1.3% in January. Pending home sales were down 5.2% from a year ago.

Things weren’t even this bad during the Great Recession.

Alarmingly, approximately one out of every seven pending home sales were cancelled in January.  That represents “the highest cancellation rate for this time of year since at least 2017”…

More home purchases are being canceled, especially in the southeastern part of the country. Just over 41,000 U.S. home-purchase agreements fell through in January, equal to 14.3% of homes that went under contract that month. That’s up from 13.4% a year earlier, and the highest cancellation rate for this time of year since at least 2017.

Are you starting to get the picture?

We are in so much trouble.

And now here come the tariffs.

After President Trump confirmed that enormous tariffs on goods coming from Mexico and Canada would go into effect at midnight, stock prices started to crash…

The stock market plummeted after President Donald Trump confirmed tariffs on Canada and Mexico would go into effect at midnight.

The Dow Jones Industrial Index lost 2.1 percent, the S&P 500 fell 2.3 percent and the tech-heavy Nasdaq was down 3.2 percent in afternoon trading.

Speaking from the White House alongside Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, Trump confirmed 25 percent tariffs on America’s largest trading partners would start on Tuesday.

A lot of pain is on the way.

We are dependent on the rest of the world for so many of the things that we purchase on a regular basis.

Sadly, this even includes food.

For a long time, we exported far more food than we imported, but now the reverse is actually true.

In 2025, it is expected that we will run an agricultural trade deficit of 49 billion dollars…

The U.S., known for being a global agriculture powerhouse, has never imported so much food.

Inbound shipments of everything from avocados to coffee and sugar are expected to drive the country’s agriculture trade deficit to a record $49 billion this year, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said in its trade outlook report. At the same time, America’s most widely grown crops have been losing overseas markets over the past decades.

It’s a stark turnaround for a nation that once used its abundant food supplies as a tool of statecraft, with the U.S. now facing a future of persistent agricultural trade deficits.

We consume far more than we produce, we buy far more stuff than we make, we have piled up the largest mountain of debt in the history of the world, and we depend on the rest of the world to send us what we need.

For more than a decade I have been desperately trying to get people to understand that we are literally committing national suicide.

When will America finally wake up?

Global events are moving in a very troubling direction very rapidly, and the clock is ticking…

Michael’s blockbuster entitled “Why” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can subscribe to his Substack newsletter at michaeltsnyder.substack.com.

About the Author: Michael Snyder’s new book entitled “Why” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com. He has also written eight other books that are available on Amazon.com including “Chaos”, “End Times”, “7 Year Apocalypse”, “Lost Prophecies Of The Future Of America”, “The Beginning Of The End”, and “Living A Life That Really Matters”.  When you purchase any of Michael’s books you help to support the work that he is doing.  You can also get his articles by email as soon as he publishes them by subscribing to his Substack newsletter.  Michael has published thousands of articles on The Economic Collapse Blog, End Of The American Dream and The Most Important News, and he always freely and happily allows others to republish those articles on their own websites.  These are such troubled times, and people need hope.  John 3:16 tells us about the hope that God has given us through Jesus Christ: “For God so loved the world, that he gave his only begotten Son, that whosoever believeth in him should not perish, but have everlasting life.”  If you have not already done so, we strongly urge you to invite Jesus Christ to be your Lord and Savior today.

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Michael Snyder is the publisher of The Economic Collapse Blog, The American Dream Blog and The Truth. You can follow him on Twitter right here.