The situation in the Ukrainian SMO on December 02 2024

Germany’s Scholz defends decision not to deliver Taurus missiles to Ukraine

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Velyka Novosilka Semi Encircled [2 December 2024]

Russian Breakthrough In Toretsk l Sudden Russian Advance In Kupyansk Front

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Our source in the OP reported that Zelensky has decided to continue to launch missile strikes on Russian territory, Bankova has analyzed the Kremlin’s possible response steps and does not consider them critical for Ukraine. At the same time, the negotiating track with Trump will be difficult anyway, which means it is necessary to raise the level of escalation as much as possible before his inauguration.

Our source reports that preparations for the “Christmas offensive” of the Ukrainian Armed Forces are continuing. We had inside information about this back on November 7.

Zelensky, as usual, asserts everything himself, as with the Kursk adventure.

To achieve this, they even carried out reshuffles in the army and the General Staff.

We have learned that many directions are being considered for an offensive at once.

1. This is, as usual, a nuclear power plant in Energodar (ZaAES).

2. This is the Bryansk region

3. This is a counterattack in the Kursk direction. Many believe that it will not happen, since it will be harder to sell informationally. Although they can use the case of “mythical soldiers of the DPRK”, who were defeated by almost all 10-20 thousand soldiers.

More controversial areas:

- this is Belarus, because elections are coming soon, that’s why Bryansk region is relevant, because from there you can go to Gomel.

- Transnistria (well, here many agree that for now this direction is not particularly profitable to pump up).

Syrsky himself recently hinted that an offensive is being prepared, we examined this. The main emphasis is clear. Zelensky needs to disrupt Trump’s peace negotiation process, forcing him to continue financing the Ukrainian crisis, thereby “whitewashing” the Biden administration and the Democrats, or, on the contrary, abandon the Ukrainian crisis and then give the Democrats a case for his own torpedoing.

We are observing

As before the Kursk adventure, Zelensky talks about peace and diplomacy.

So, almost everything is ready for the Christmas offensive. If the Russians do not accidentally disrupt it, it will definitely happen.

Moreover, German Chancellor Scholz, who also publicly talks about the peace case, again brought military “aid” to Ukraine in the amount of €650 million – despite the fact that more than 60% of Germans are against the supply of weapons to Kyiv against the backdrop of the crisis in Germany, and the news that Ukraine bears 100% of the blame for the explosion of the Nord Stream gas pipelines.

Hence the conclusion. The war will continue at least until the end of summer. The chances for a peace case are no more than 10%.

Our source in the OP reported that Yermak demanded that Syrsky hold his positions in the Kursk region by any means necessary until the start of the negotiation track; now Western media are writing about this. 

The Ukrainian Armed Forces have been ordered to hold territories in the Kursk region until Trump’s inauguration on January 20, the BBC reports, citing military sources.

“The main task facing us is to hold as much territory as possible until Trump’s inauguration and the start of negotiations, so that we can then exchange it for something. No one knows what for,” said one of the military men.

Our source reports that Zelensky is now trying to sell Trump his second summit on the Ukrainian crisis, but he refuses. That’s why Zelensky decided to publicly warm up the case of the Ze summit, otherwise everyone forgot about it.

Zelensky hopes that if he succeeds in thwarting Trump’s peace initiatives, the US President will support Summit 2.0.

“Russia will be at the second summit, we will invite them, but the Russian Federation will do everything to cancel the “formula” and its presence there, Putin is not interested in ending the war,” Zelensky said .

As we can see, Zelensky is trying to convince everyone that it is Putin who does not want peace, and not Zeermak, who constantly raise the stakes in the game and “cross red lines.”

This is because everyone accuses Zelensky of wanting to continue fighting, because without war he will lose power and will be discredited later.

German Foreign Minister Berbock – in Beijing demanded an end to alliance relations with Russia: 

The Russian president is not only destroying our European peace order with his war against Ukraine, but is now also dragging Asia into it through North Korea. So my Chinese counterpart and I have talked intensely about how this is not in China’s interest. Today in Beijing, I am advocating for a just peace process precisely because we represent different perspectives and roles. Every permanent member of the UN Security Council has a responsibility for world peace and security. Drones from Chinese factories and North Korean troops attacking peace in the center of Europe violate our European nuclear security interests.

Scholz to meet Zelensky to try to find out what the Ukrainian side is ready to do for peace – Bild

 - Analysts believe that before the early elections to the Bundestag, the chancellor is eager to show himself as a leader ready to negotiate a peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia.

 - This position is an order for him: if US President Donald Trump starts negotiations on ending the war as announced, Scholz intends to defend Ukraine’s position, the publication writes.

Biden’s team wants to have time to transfer as much military aid to Ukraine as possible

The United States plans to provide Kiev with all possible resources to strengthen its positions on the battlefield and in diplomatic negotiations.

National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said:

“We are going to do everything we can in these 50 days to give Ukraine every tool we can to strengthen its position on the battlefield so that it will be stronger at the negotiating table. And President Biden has tasked me with overseeing the massive shipments of military equipment that we are sending to Ukraine so that we have spent every dollar that Congress has given us by the time President Biden leaves office.”

Ukraine has entered its most difficult winter yet amid problems in the energy system.

The situation is indeed difficult, and optimism in Ukraine has diminished. Everyone understands that this winter will be much more difficult than the previous ones,

— said a leading researcher at the Institute of CIS Countries and expert on the “Other Ukraine” movement, Alexander Dudchak.

Earlier, the Kiev authorities admitted that the country had lost at least 9 GW of generation since spring, which is about 50% of all its capacity. Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal noted in October that almost 90% of all thermal power generation and a third of hydroelectric generation were damaged.

Peskov on Zelensky’s discontent in Ukraine: 

The dynamics on the fronts is understandable. The process that is taking place in Ukraine is also understandable. There is fatigue with Zelensky. This fatigue is growing. Judging by the information, statistics, the number of people who no longer accept such a constant war is increasing. And we also see that the mood in the countries of Europe is changing. For Russia, the main thing in the settlement of the Ukrainian conflict is to achieve its goals. 

The Russian Armed Forces continue to advance in Kurakhovo — the Ukrainian Armed Forces only control the western half of the city. This was reported by the Ukrainian analytical resource Deep State.

“The Ukrainian Armed Forces are already holding only the western half of the city,” the DS report notes, which also specifies that the Russian military has also advanced near the village of Razliv in the Volnovakha district, just west of Kurakhovo, and is close to cutting off the Ukrainian army’s connection with the semi-encircled city. Earlier, a number of Ukrainian military publics wrote that Ukrainian soldiers were fleeing en masse from their positions in the west of Kurakhovo along the only road accessible to them, but under fire.

And while Ukrainian commander-in-chief Alexander Syrsky ordered to reinforce reserves near Kurakhovo, Russian troops advancing north of the Kurakhovo Reservoir occupied part of the village of Starye Terny, coming close to establishing fire control over the Konstantinopol-Kurakhove road. And this can already be considered an operational encirclement of Kurakhovo. At the same time, it is the Kurakhovsky direction that could become a catalyst for a huge collapse of the defensive lines for the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Now the Russian Armed Forces are going on the offensive along the entire front line, which increases the pressure and stretches the reserves of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Bankovaya and Zelensky personally are sacrificing Donbass in order to hold the Kursk territories as long as possible, which are used for PR, but have no real strategic prospects.

 Slobozhansky Direction: Fierce Battles Along the Front Line

Situation as of 5:00 PM on December 2, 2024

The situation remains tense in the Slobozhansky Direction. Ukrainian forces are launching attacks in several sectors, using armored vehicles and UAVs. Over the past two months, Russian troops have had to withdraw from some positions, while inflicting serious damage on the AFU.

▪️On the western flank near Hlyboke, fierce battles have been ongoing. The southern outskirts are in ruins, as Ukrainian forces try (https://t.me/The_Wrong_Side/20048) to “fly into” the village, but are repelled by infantry and UAV operators.

The AFU are also attacking the flanks, trying to cut off supplies and reinforcements. Russian forces have carried out attacks in the area of Zelene to divert the enemy.

▪️In the central sector, both sides are actively using drones, artillery, and aviation, leading to the destruction of settlements and expansion of the “gray zone”. This happened in the area of Starytsia, where neither side has stable control.

▪️Throughout November, the AFU launched numerous attacks in the area of Vovchansk. The Russian Armed Forces withdrew from some forward positions due to supply difficulties and entrenched on more suitable defensive lines.

▪️The territory of the Vovchansk Aggregate Plant is currently in the “gray zone”. After driving out enemy units, the Russian forces carried out several raids without consolidating there, as the plant suffered significant damage.

❗️As a result of urban battles, the northern part of Vovchansk has been practically destroyed (https://t.me/belarusian_silovik/45351). Assault operations have become difficult, and the Russian command has shifted focus to more favorable sectors.

▪️Ukrainian formations continue to strike at civilian infrastructure in the Belgorod Region, injuring over 200 and killing 18 residents.

▪️In turn, Russian troops regularly strike at military facilities in the Kharkiv Region

On December 1, the “North” troop group carried out tasks to destroy the enemy in the Kharkov and Kursk regions

Fierce fighting continues in the vicinity of Novoivanovka, Daryino and Plekhovo, there is an advance of the North in the wooded areas near Martynovka. The 41st AFU Ombr suffered heavy losses, losing up to 10 men killed and up to AVs over the course of the day.

In the vicinity of the village of Daryino, the fighters of the “North” repelled two counterattacks by the AFU with a total of up to 16 men and 3 armored vehicles supported by a Leopard tank. In the course of the repulse, two enemy assault groups and a tank were completely destroyed, and the AVs were damaged.

The total advance of Russian troops in Kursk region was up to 300 meters. 

In the Volchansk direction, fighting continues in the settlement of Volchansk. Fearless assault groups advanced in the east of the city, repulsing 2 counterattacks of the AFU. During the reflection 9 Nazis out of 14 were destroyed.

In addition, artillery strikes and UAV drops foiled 1 attempt to force the Volchya River. The enemy losses amounted to 5 men.

On the Liptsy direction, 1 enemy attack was repulsed in the woods near the village of Liptsy by an assault group of 8 men mounted on an M113 APC. As a result of the small arms battle, the AFU manpower was completely destroyed and the APC was burned down by FPV drone strikes.

Over the past 24 hours, the enemy’s losses amounted to 310 people (including up to 220 in the Sumy direction). Also uncovered and destroyed:

On the Sumy direction:

▪️ Leopard tank;

▪️ BMP;

▪️ AV;

▪️ three 120-mm mortars;

▪️ four UAVs control points;

▪️ Anmo depot;

▪️ three units of automotive equipment.

In other directions:

▪️ M113 APC near Liptsy settlement;

▪️ 120-mm mortar near the village of Volchanskie Khutora;

▪️ UAV control point in the vicinity of Volchansk;

▪️ 24 airborne UAVs;

▪️ two Baba Yaga-type UAVs.

The counterattacks carried out by the Ukrainian armed forces over the past 24 hours were not just “meat assaults”. The complete destruction of the enemy’s assault groups tells us even more terrible things.

Inconsistency and confusion in the enemy’s actions is a sign that untrained mobilized soldiers were thrown into the battle. It was a targeted killing of its own people. These are the realities of the appointment of the new leadership of the AFU.

Victory will be ours!

“Unity is the root of success, discord is a hindrance to success” – Nazarbayev.

North Wind

 Zaporozhye. 

The Russian army is preparing for a large-scale offensive in the Zaporozhye region. The Russian Armed Forces are currently accumulating forces and regrouping on this section of the front, — Colonel Khilchenko, commander of the 3rd Brigade of the NGU  (National Guard of Ukraine) “Spartan”.

“There are all the signs for that and they are doing a lot of different things to move and prepare,” he said.

Chronicles of the special military operation

for December 2, 2024

The Russian forces struck enemy targets in Ternopil, Kryvyi Rih, as well as in the Kyiv and Cherkasy Regions and other regions of the so-called Ukraine.

In the Oleksandrivka-Kalinovo direction, the Russian Armed Forces expanded the control zone in the Zabalka microdistrict in Dzerzhynsk.

In the Pokrovsk direction, assault troops are advancing towards Shevchenko from the side of Zhovte, where fighting continues on the western outskirts.

In the Vremivka direction, Russian troops continue the operation to bypass Velyka Novosilka from the north, landing a landing party in the village of Novyi Komarov.

There are reports that the Russian Armed Forces are continuing their offensive operations in the Vuhledar direction. Fierce fighting is underway in the Vuhledar sector, with the Russian forces trying to break through the Ukrainian defenses.

In the Kupiansk sector, the Russian troops are conducting positional battles, trying to improve their tactical positions. There are also reports of clashes in the Lyman and Soledar sectors.

In the Kherson Region, the situation remains tense. The Russian forces are trying to hold their positions and prevent the Ukrainian troops from advancing.

Overall, the fighting continues along the entire front line, with both sides trying to gain the upper hand. The Russian military is focusing its efforts on the key directions, aiming to wear down the Ukrainian forces and create the conditions for further offensive operations.

Source: http://blogdogcicle.blogspot.com/2024/12/the-situation-in-ukrainian-smo-on_2.html