The First Turning

People are going to react strongly to this comparison, so I really do mean this narrowly. But when you read about first 100 days of the New Deal, you hear about Congress just being totally overwhelmed with new legislation and orders, things being broken or rebuilt every day. 1/

— Sean T at RCP (@SeanTrende) February 8, 2025

I wonder if the sense was the same as we are feeling today (and yes, a lot of people ((mostly) Southern) Democrats and Republicans alike, were concerned FDR was trying to make himself a dictator). That’s not (at all) to predict this will be as successful as the New Deal 2/

— Sean T at RCP (@SeanTrende) February 8, 2025

or that it will be remembered nearly as fondly. That’s just the only time I can think of where so many things have been blown up so radically quickly in politics. 3/3

— Sean T at RCP (@SeanTrende) February 8, 2025

Yes, this isn’t legislation. Like I said, this is meant to be a narrow comparison as there are important differences. But if you read the accounts, the legislation was being brought to the floor from the Oval Office, and sometimes voted on sight unseen. 4/3

— Sean T at RCP (@SeanTrende) February 8, 2025

It really was amazing; every aspect of the economy basically restructured with a 100 day period. It was absolute chaos at the time. And again, I’m not suggesting this will be remembered the same or work the same. Just trying to find a comparison for the general sense of things.

— Sean T at RCP (@SeanTrende) February 8, 2025

CNN confirms that common sense is making a comeback in American. 79% of Americans now oppose men in women’s sports, up from 62% in 2021.

The cultural tide has shifted, and we’re winning. pic.twitter.com/vRoKOVRZgM

— Charlie Kirk (@charliekirk11) February 6, 2025

I have been thinking about this too.

It is not just the whirlwind of executive orders. It is also watching an open attempt at regime change, rapid culture changes on race and gender and building a new civic order.

City Journal:

“And yet Howe is relentless in his cheerful optimism. By the 2040s, once we’ve passed through this crucible, all the trends we now lament will have reversed themselves, and we’ll enter a glorious new future as a nation transformed. The malaise will lift. Political gridlock and dysfunction will disappear. The economy will jolt back to life and achieve new heights of productivity and dynamism, delivering “dramatically higher living standards” and much lower levels of income inequality. Culture will flourish once more. A new moral consensus will be reached and enforced, commanding broad conformity. Millennials will have become the most communitarian generation in living memory, reenergizing civic society and committing themselves to family life. Religious participation will revive, though perhaps in unpredictable ways. Gender norms will swing back in favor of a new traditionalism. A sudden baby boom will end concerns about demographic decline. Crime will plunge to new lows, while social trust will reach new highs. As in the mythic 1950s of yore, by the 2050s, no one will lock their doors, and everyone will trust the government. This pattern has followed every one of our past centenary crises, and it will happen again, Howe insists. …

This is important, because Howe is perfectly clear about the nature and the stakes of the nation’s current divide: we’re headed for revolutionary regime change. The “old regime is weak and in peril,” he says. As in every historical parallel, “new values and ideas” have already emerged to fill the vacuum, with “rising generations” coalescing into factions around them. Soon, “one or more of the new factions will do everything they can to push the old regime aside and replace it with something newer and more powerful.” At that point, “once a powerful new regime is able to redefine the rules,” we will see “lasting constitutional change”—i.e., a “new American republic.” …

So we are witnessing an inevitable “clash of regimes.” And though the nation is currently defined by a deadlock between what Howe alludes to as “blue zones” and “red zones,” he is firm in his conviction that this stalemate will not last much longer. Quoting Lincoln’s observation that “a house divided against itself cannot stand,” he is certain that the United States is destined to “become all one thing, or all the other.” …”

I read and reviewed this book two years ago.

For those who don’t remember Neil Howe’s argument, it goes something like this: there would be a huge defining generational clash between the Boomers in 2020s, it would be winner-take-all, one side would be vanquished for good in the crisis and young people would support the winning side.

In the aftermath of the Fourth Turning, the culture would shift and begin to regenerate. Individualism would begin to decline. Social trust and conformity would begin to rise. Gender norms would suddenly swing back toward a new traditionalism. The winner would begin to construct a new civic order while the values of previous era atrophied. Politics would begin to depolarize as the new social order strengthened toward a new high. A new mainstream would be forged that would last 75 years.

Anyway, the argument is that about 10 years from now we will have returned to something like the postwar era which lasted from 1945 to the mid-1960s.

Note: It is more likely this is probably just astrology for history nerds and that we are in the Trump honeymoon period, but I wanted to share the forecast as a riposte to all the overly cynical takes. We will know for certain which direction we are headed in a year from now. Is the crisis over?