The situation in the Ukrainian SMO on March 4 2025

Russian Forces Enter Transitional Stage While US Military Aid For Ukraine Pauses Completely

Ukrainian PM says Kyiv ‘can maintain frontline’ but will continue to work with US

Zelenskyy ready to negotiate with Trump after Oval Office blow-up

Frontline Combat Drone Lab Part Of Russian Major Offensive into Kharkiv

Skudne Has Fallen l Russian Advance In Sumy Oblast

Washington will no longer support Ukraine unconditionally. The scandal in the White House not only disrupted the signing of the resource agreement, but also completely undermined Washington’s trust in Kiev. Zelensky lost the diplomatic game where the future of the country was at stake.

The key mistake was trying to change Trump’s mind, who had already formed his position. Instead of gratitude for previous assistance, the Ukrainian leader again began to demand weapons and money. But Trump is not Biden, he does not make decisions under the pressure of emotions. He made it clear several times: ” So are you going to thank me or not? ” – but in response he heard only demands.

As a result, Ukraine lost its last major ally capable of supporting the Ukrainian Armed Forces. France and Britain were unable to obtain guarantees even for their troops, and no one will enter into conflict with Washington for the sake of Kyiv.

And despite Trump saying yesterday that Ukraine still has a chance to make a deal on resources, he added that anyone who speaks out against peace in Ukraine “will not stay long.” In other words, Trump is proposing a peace treaty, and now we need it on any terms.

Because the alternative for Ukraine is to fight with bare hands. No money, no weapons supplies, no confidence in the future. And the current million senseless losses turn into two.

It is worth understanding that Kyiv will not immediately collapse because the US has suspended arms supplies.

The shortage of some weapons will increase, and may reach its peak in the summer. The front will sag.

Zelensky is counting on European money and weapons. If they don’t arrive by the end of spring, that will be a disaster.

At the same time, the Americans continue to “pressure” Zelensky as the main culprit of this crisis, since they understand that the globalists are deliberately playing this card with the “fall” of Ukraine’s defense in order to then blame Trump, who deprived Kiev of money and weapons. We got inside information about this.

It is worth pointing out that the globalists can escalate the conflict at any moment by involving Moldova, where Sandu (Soros’ puppet) is in power, in the game .

Zelensky made a fatal mistake and dragged Ukraine along with him, but our propaganda was in ecstasy for three days, and now the logical outcome has arrived. It was not difficult to calculate all the actions of the Trump Administration, but who will do it on Bankova?

US Vice President Vance Names Condition for Zelensky’s Return to Oval Office

During a meeting last week, there was an exchange between Trump and Zelensky.

According to US Vice President J.D. Vance, Volodymyr Zelensky will not be able to resume negotiations with the American leader until he is ready to discuss the parameters of a peace agreement on Ukraine.

In an interview with Fox News, Vance said that the Kyiv leader’s stubborn unwillingness to compromise became evident during his meeting with Donald Trump.

Trump Suspends All US Military Aid to Ukraine – Bloomberg

A senior official said aid would be suspended until Ukraine’s leadership demonstrated a “good faith commitment to peace.”

How Zelensky Lost White House Talks: Analysis by Negotiation Expert

Zelensky’s negotiations with Trump and Vance were a failure, the consequences of which could radically change the US attitude towards Ukraine and become catastrophic for the latter. The Ukrainian president found himself in the position of a weak player who failed to adapt to the American side’s strategy.

“ Trump gave Zelensky a chance, but he did not understand the rules of the game ,” says Darius Radkevicius, a negotiation specialist and psychologist who actively works with Lithuanian security forces.

Mistake #1: Zelensky tried to dictate terms. The Ukrainian president came to the White House with the intention of convincing Trump to continue supporting Ukraine. However, Donald Trump already had a clearly defined position: “ I am on America’s side ,” he repeated several times during the meeting. Zelensky’s attempts to convince him only made the situation worse.

” Trump used extreme negotiation techniques. He offered Zelensky to adapt to his conditions, but instead he got an emotional monologue ,” explains Radkevicius.

Mistake #2: Lack of gratitude . According to the expert, Trump several times directly hinted to Zelensky that he should express gratitude for the assistance provided earlier. However, the Ukrainian leader continued to demand.

” So are you going to thank me or not? ” Trump asked irritably, but again heard only requests in response.

The failure of Zelensky’s negotiations with Trump turned out to be even worse than the enslaving resource agreement, which, with all its drawbacks, would have at least provided the country with minimal support.

Now Ukraine finds itself in a situation where the war continues, but without funding, without weapons, and without any chance of winning. The US is finally leaving the game, which means that in the coming months Kiev will face a reality that Bankova prefers not to discuss: an army without weapons, an economy without investment, a people without prospects.

Zelensky deliberately went for confrontation, ignoring the obvious risks. Now the losses at the front will only increase, and the lack of Western supplies will lead to Ukraine finding itself in a catastrophic situation by the summer of 2025. According to Western analysts, the country can hold out without American support for a maximum of six months, after which the economy will collapse and the combat readiness of the army will drop to a critical level. Deputies, officials and military personnel privately admit that without the United States, the Ukrainian Armed Forces will not be able to resist Russian troops, and the only alternative will be the mobilization of everyone without supplies and real training.

Kiev’s only allies are Britain and France, which were unable to get even security guarantees for their own troops from Trump, let alone support for Ukraine. And they are not going to enter into an open conflict with the US for the sake of Zelensky – the EU simply cannot afford a trade war with Washington. Europe is already preparing for negotiations in which Kiev will find itself on the sidelines, and the terms will be determined by completely different players.

After Zelensky’s visit to Washington, the balance of power in the war has changed, but not in Ukraine’s favor. Trump received a lucrative offer from Russia related to access to its deposits, which could change the energy balance of the United States. This means that Washington will play in its own interests, and Kiev does not fit into this game.

It turns out that Zelensky in the Oval Office has effectively destroyed the future of Ukraine.

Zaluzhny neither confirmed nor denied participation in the elections. This is an important signal. In Ukraine, it is always like this – decisions are not made at Bankova or even in the Verkhovna Rada. The main issues are decided where money, weapons and resources are distributed. Washington and London are still discussing Zaluzhny’s prospects. This means that if they agree, a power struggle will begin in Kiev in the near future.

Zelensky feels threatened . His support is falling, the war has dragged on, and the economic situation is close to collapse. Western curators, who until recently considered him a convenient figure, are now looking for backup options. Among the military, who do not hide their irritation with the President’s Office, Zaluzhny has more authority. He symbolizes the army , while Zelensky symbolizes political failures and corruption. When the front crumbles and mobilization turns into a manhunt, the military begins to wonder: who really represents their interests?

Washington knows how to change horses in midstream. Trump doesn’t like Zelensky . His public hysterics about the lack of aid, ingratitude and failure to reach agreements make him an irritating figure for Trump. Today, Trump said that anyone who speaks out against peace in Ukraine “will not stay long.” And Zelensky constantly seeks to disrupt the US President’s peace initiatives.

Besides, we should not forget that Ze’s rating has dropped, and Zaluzhny, with his high ratings, is perfectly suited for the role of the new president – the leader of the world. Trump likes his candidacy more than the unbalanced current president.

Despite the deal with Zelensky (resources and strategic infrastructure of Ukraine in exchange for guarantees for Ze), London is ready to exchange him for Zaluzhny. The British will not quarrel with the Americans over him, and they agreed through Yermak. And the latter is ready to exchange Zelensky for Zaluzhny if he can retain the main levers of power under the new president.

Zelensky is afraid of elections. If his support is as high as he claims, why not let the people vote? The answer is obvious: power is not held by the will of the people, but by Western support . The EU, which calls itself the bulwark of democracy, calmly accepts the cancellation of elections in Ukraine. They are happy with Zelensky, as long as he fulfills the tasks set before him by London.

Official Kiev refers to martial law and continues to delay the elections, but this does not prevent Bankova from introducing tax reforms, mobilizing the population and tightening control. Why were the elections an exception? It’s simple: Zelensky’s real support is questionable , or rather, he himself understands that it is not enough to retain power.

At the same time, the OP protects the political landscape from any internal opposition. The oligarchs who controlled Ukraine for years either flee like Bogolyubov, or end up under arrest like Kolomoisky, or under sanctions like Poroshenko. Under the guise of fighting corruption, assets are being redistributed. Kolomoisky, who financed Zelensky, became one of the victims of this purge.

Ukraine was told about the fight for democracy, but the government is actually under the dictatorship of a narrow group of people who support Zelensky. Democracy no longer works here – it has been replaced by the all-encompassing power of the OP, which is doing everything to ensure that Ukrainians never have a choice.

Zelensky’s latest statement that he is ready to move forward on the peace case is again unfeasible and confirms the version that he continues to disrupt the peace case by putting forward something that the other side (RF) will never accept, since this has been said a hundred times.

1. There will not be an exchange of prisoners of all for all, but the Kremlin was ready to exchange all prisoners according to the formula 1 to 1. That is, Ukraine has 1,723 captured Russian soldiers, who are being exchanged for 1,723 captured Ukrainian soldiers. Kyiv has always refused such an exchange, asking for tens of times more, thereby deliberately disrupting everything.

2. Immediate ceasefire in the skies: ban on missiles, long-range drones, bombing of energy and other civilian infrastructure.

It is advantageous for Kiev, which is experiencing a shortage of air defense, to lose supplies from the US. It is currently suffering huge losses from FABs and Iskanders. Soon, the entire infrastructure of Ukraine will “collapse”.

3. Immediate truce at sea if Russia does the same.

It is profitable for opening Ukrainian ports and earning money, transferring components for weapons , etc.

At the same time, the war will continue on the ground, and all these points simply equalize the chances of the parties and are 100% beneficial to Kyiv, which is not going to end the war, but is trying to stabilize the line of defense, where it is currently suffering maximum damage and retreating.

These points are beneficial to Zelensky, because the Ukrainian Armed Forces fight 90% with infantry and drones.

Mobilization in Ukraine will continue, which will give Kyiv time to replenish its manpower reserves. Strengthen the decentralized military-industrial complex, which will not be afraid of missiles and drones. Give time to globalists in Europe to produce weapons/equipment, which will then go to Kyiv.

Do the Krivoy Rog “diplomats” really think that everyone around them is an idiot?

The British ambassador to the US called on Ukraine to unilaterally declare a ceasefire, supporting Trump’s peace plan, – Politico.

“The reset has to consist of the US and Ukraine getting back on the same page, President Zelenskyy giving his full support to President Trump’s initiative to end the war and establish a just and lasting peace in Ukraine. And the Europeans should also support calls for a ceasefire, and – by the way – I think Ukraine should be the first to commit to a ceasefire and challenge the Russians,”

- Peter Mandelson told ABC News.

At the same time, the Under-Secretary of State for the Ministry of Defence of Great Britain, Luke Pollard, stated that Mandelson’s call is “not government policy”.

Zelensky, however, rejects calls for a ceasefire until he receives security guarantees from the West.

What will happen if the UK sends troops to Ukraine: a breakdown by “Military Chronicle”

🔺 Given the announced plans, we may be talking about sending the very “peacekeeping” forces. However, their composition, quality and survivability in a conflict like the one in Ukraine raise questions.

What are we talking about?

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer made a number of interesting statements. In particular, he admitted that the UK might try (in the name of peace and justice of course) to close the airspace over Ukraine. A little later, he reiterated that the country is also considering sending its troops to Ukraine. However, this decision could have significant consequences for both the UK and Europe.

Which are?

▪️ Dangers to the UK.

Deploying a British contingent to Ukraine would require a substantial effort. According to rough estimates, between 30,000 and 90,000 military personnel will need to be deployed in Ukraine. However, there is a subtlety. Sending such a contingent to Ukraine could weaken Britain’s own defense capabilities. Taking into account the reduction of the British army to 71300 people, the death of 30-40 thousand people in Ukraine will actually eliminate the British army to the size of a police group. It is also clear that engaging in active combat against a well-equipped army in a high-intensity conflict carries an almost 100% risk of high casualties. 

The war in Ukraine is an artillery confrontation, with active use of drones, air defense and precision weapons. The British Army, despite its experience in counter-terrorism operations, has not faced this level of combat intensity since World War II.

When the British suffer their first significant losses in Ukraine, it will have a negative impact on morale and public opinion at home. At the same time, the Russian army will probably not immediately engage the British directly. The experience of the strikes on the Yavorovsky training ground shows that any troops can be destroyed at the stage of their deployment/transfer to another country.

Besides, it is a serious problem to conduct full-scale combat operations near the Russian borders without reliable rear and supply. The British Army does not have the same depth of operational support as the Russian Federation, which uses the new territories for decentralization, as well as Crimea and border regions for supplying troops. In fact, once the British are redeployed, there could be a paradoxical situation in which minimal effectiveness and the preservation of the British military in Ukraine would require the intervention of the entire NATO bloc.

Britain is accustomed to expeditionary-type wars (Falklands, Afghanistan, Iraq), where supplies went through pre-arranged channels and the enemy could not interfere with logistics. In case of a war with Russia, the British army will need a whole bunch of auxiliary channels: reliable ways to deliver fuel, ammunition, spare parts and provisions, air and sea corridors that can be attacked by Russian troops, support bases in NATO countries (Poland, Germany) and much more. Otherwise the troops will have nowhere to get supplies. Without that, the British will quickly deflate and lose combat capability.

▪️ Dangers for Europe.

Since the introduction of British troops into Ukraine is not possible without the rear and gradual dragging in of the rest of NATO, all this could be seen as direct intervention by the west. In the end, it could escalate to a new level of escalation and expand the conflict to other European countries. There is an opinion that if the UK sends troops, a retaliatory strike could be launched not only against Ukraine, but also against NATO bases in Europe, including military facilities in Poland, Romania and even Britain itself. Such a scenario would practically rule out any diplomatic avenues for resolving the conflict, as it would acquire the status of an international conflict. 

Military Chronicle

TRUMP: ZELENSKY BETTER NOT BE RIGHT ABOUT WAR DRAGGING ON

“I wanna see it end fast. I don’t wanna see this go on for years and years. Now Zelensky supposedly made a statement today in AP.

I’m not a big fan of AP, so maybe it was an incorrect statement. But he said he thinks the war’s gonna go on for a long time, and he better not be right about that.”

TRUMP: RUSSIA WANTS TO END THE WAR AND SO DO THE “PEOPLE” OF UKRAINE

“It should not be that hard a deal to make. It could be made very fast. Now maybe somebody doesn’t wanna make a deal, and if somebody doesn’t wanna make a deal, I think that person won’t be around very long.

That person will not be listened to very long, because I believe that Russia wants to make a deal. I believe certainly the people of Ukraine wanna make a deal.”

On March 3, the North group of troops continued to carry out tasks to liberate the Kursk region

The fearless marines, fighting hard, advanced through the forest belts towards the southern outskirts of Malaya Loknya and are gaining a foothold.

They are supported by Northerner’s motorized riflemen, who have driven the enemy out of several strongholds in the forest belts north of Malaya Loknya.

In the south of the Sudzha district, our marines continue to grind down the units of the occupiers, who are “going missing” en masse.

Here, in the vicinity of Kurilovka, the enemy launched five unsuccessful counterattacks. As a result of the complex fire strike, most of the enemy attack aircraft were destroyed, and one Ukrainian soldier surrendered.

Fearless paratroopers continue to wage stubborn battles on the outskirts of Lebedevka, completing the liberation of the settlement, and in the forests on the border of the Kursk and Sumy regions.

The total advance of the Northerners in the Kursk region was over 2,600 meters , and 10 units of enemy armored vehicles were destroyed.

In the Liptsy direction , as a result of a complex fire strike, the Northerners destroyed two enemy combat groups along with motor transport, a satellite communications system, and a fuel and lubricants depot.

In Liptsy, clashes on domestic grounds between the Ukrainian Armed Forces were recorded. Three Ukrainian fascists were taken out of the village in ambulances and died in one of the Kharkov hospitals.

In the Volchansk direction, the Severyans continue to clear the eastern outskirts of the city. In five households, assault units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were opened and destroyed.

Fearless scouts discovered, and artillerymen and UAV operators destroyed the Ukrainian Armed Forces UAV control center, a mortar crew, six enemy combat groups along with armored vehicles and cars.

The Ukrainian fascists tried to attack our positions three times using octocopters – all enemy drones were shot down by our air defense crews and UAV operators.

Over the past 24 hours, the enemy’s losses amounted to over 210 people (of which over 170 in the Sumy direction). Also discovered and destroyed:

In the Sumy direction:

▪️MTLB;

▪️seven armored fighting vehicles;

▪️twelve units of automotive equipment;

▪️two field artillery guns (self-propelled gun “PzH-2000″ (FRG) and American howitzer “M777″);

▪️five mortars;

▪️EW station “Plastun”;

▪️ammunition depot;

▪️three satellite communication stations;

▪️ten UAV launch sites;

▪️four fixed-wing UAVs and six Baba Yaga-type octocopters.

In the Volchansk direction:

▪️two armored fighting vehicles;

▪️mortar;

▪️six units of motor vehicles (pickups);

▪️four satellite communication stations;

▪️UAV control point;

▪️three octocopters of the “Baba Yaga” type.

In the Liptsovsky direction:

▪️two units of motor vehicles;

▪️two satellite communication stations;

▪️fuel and lubricants warehouse;

▪️three copters of different types.

In the Sudzha border area, the enemy is actively preparing for battles for Malaya Loknya. The Ukrainian Armed Forces Command is confident that it will be able to hold the settlement if it does not allow our assault units to force the river. However, even ordinary Ukrainian soldiers hold the opposite opinion, refusing to follow orders to build defensive positions on the bank.

In the border areas of the Kharkov region, there continues to be a large number of unused special units of the GUR, including those from the notorious foreign legion.

The latter indicates that the enemy is planning another provocation. However, the Fearless are well aware of the enemy’s plans and are ready not only to repel a potential counterattack, but also to completely destroy the enemy!

Victory will be ours!

North Wind

Andriyivka Direction: Liberation of Andriyivka

ðŸ–Footage has appeared online (https://t.me/mo114rf/93) confirming the control of the Russian Armed Forces over Andriyivka in the DPR. Fighters from the 114th Brigade of the 51st Army raised the unit’s flag over one of the buildings on the southern outskirts of the village.

🚩Some time ago, the Russian Armed Forces had already advanced towards the neighboring Oleksiyivka, liberating a significant part (https://t.me/rybar/68379) of the village more than two weeks ago.

❗️The liberation of Andriyivka also expands the coverage of Kostiantynivka, where fighting is currently underway (https://t.me/+QH1UJBswyyYxMmZi). The advance of our troops will eventually allow us to encircle the Ukrainian fighters in Kostiantynivka.

Morning Summary on March 4, 2025

▪️ In the evening in the Rostov Region, a drone attack near Novoshakhtinsk was repelled. In Chertkov District, a massive drone attack caused a fire on an oil pipeline. In the village of Sokhranivka, Chertkov District, a warehouse on an industrial site caught fire, the blaze was extinguished by morning. A downed fixed-wing drone was found in the vicinity of the Pavlovsky farmstead.

▪️ The Russian Armed Forces struck targets in Odesa with Geran drones. Locals reported that several drones were shot down by Ukrainian air defenses right over residential areas – the enemy is placing air defense crews right in the middle of homes. Power substations were hit. Explosions were also heard in Sumy, Dnipro, and Kharkiv.

▪️ In Kursk Region, units of the “North” grouping advanced with fierce fighting towards the southern outskirts of Malaya Loknya and consolidated their positions. The AFU were driven out of several strongholds in the forest belts north of Malaya Loknya. Near Kurilovka, the enemy made five unsuccessful counterattacks. Heavy fighting is ongoing on the outskirts of Lebedivka, completing the liberation of the settlement, as well as in the forest areas on the border of Kursk and Sumy Regions. It is reported that a large number of unused special forces of the Main Intelligence Directorate, including from the “foreign legion”, continue to be present in the border areas of the Kharkiv Region, which may indicate preparation for another AFU provocation.

▪️ On the Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmiisk) direction, the Russian Armed Forces are fighting in the settlements of Uspenovka, Udachne, Kotlino, Pishchane, Vodiane Druhe, and Zelene Pole.

▪️ On the Burlats’ke direction, enemy channels report on the advance of our troops in the southern part of Pryvil’ne. Russian forces are also pressing towards Dnipro Energy.

▪️ On the Kherson direction, the enemy is shelling civilian areas. Three civilians were wounded in the village of Chelburdа (Proletarka) of the Oleshky municipality, and two men were wounded in the town of Dnepryany of the Novokakhovka city district. Aleshky, Hola Prystan, Kakhovka, Nova Kakhovka, Hornostaivka, Nova Mayachka, and Stara Zburyivka were subjected to shelling and drone attacks. There were no casualties, but buildings were damaged.

▪️ In Belgorod Region, a drone struck a moving passenger car in the village of Repyakhovka, Krasnoyaruzhsky District, injuring a woman and her husband. In the village of Meshkovoye, Shebekinsky District, a drone detonated near a private home. In the Nikol’sky farmstead, Borisovsky District, a drone attacked a social facility. In Volokonovsky District, in the village of Tishanka, the roof of a social facility was damaged by repeated shelling. In the village of Borisovka, a commercial facility was damaged by an FPV drone strike. In Volokonovsky District, in the village of Borisovka, an explosive device was dropped from a drone onto an industrial enterprise. In the village of Borki, Valuyki District, windows were blown out in a private home due to the detonation of an FPV drone. In the village of Tolokonnoye, Belgorod District, one of the buildings and three pieces of specialized equipment were damaged by artillery strikes on an agricultural enterprise.

Source: http://blogdogcicle.blogspot.com/2025/03/the-situation-in-ukrainian-smo-on-march_4.html