Four Downs: With Focus on RBs, QB-WR Play Could Decide Ravens-Eagles

First Down: Which offense can dictate the game?

The Baltimore Ravens and Philadelphia Eagles is a game made for exciting action. The superstars in this matchup are plentiful. The Ravens have Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry, Mark Andrews and Zay Flowers, while the Eagles have Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley, A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith. Putting it mildly, this is the fantasy football game of the week. With all of this star power and focus on the offensive side of things, which offense will make the biggest imprint on this game?

The Eagles have a habit of controlling the game by keeping their offense on the field as much as possible. They are winning the time of possession battle, holding the ball an average of 32 minutes and 38 seconds. The Eagles have a chance to keep Lamar Jackson and the Ravens from getting into an early rhythm, by exploiting the Ravens’ inability to get off the field on third downs. To put this problem in perspective, the Ravens offense is one of the best third down teams, converting over 46 percent of the time, while the defense allows opponents to pick up the conversion 43 percent of the time. The Eagles don’t want to get into a shootout against Jackson but rather shorten the game and make the most of each of their opportunities with the ball. The Eagles want a tired Ravens defense and a Ravens offense that has all of the pressure without much of a chance to turn things on. Before the Ravens’ gutsy fourth down conversion against the Chargers, it looked like LA was controlling every aspect of the game with their offense. That’s why this is something to keep in mind going into this game.

The Ravens like to put their opponents in bad situations by giving them too much to defend: it’s the pick-your-poison offense concept. If Henry gets going, the play-action pass game heats up. If you play zone to keep all that speed in front of your watched eyes, Jackson picks you apart. Once Jackson picks you apart, King Henry makes his presence unmistakably known. Call it pick your poison, call it cat and mouse or a frustrating game of whack-a-mole but at their best the Ravens get you where they want you. This is the kind of game where the coin toss has power. Deferring to the second half makes sense most of the time. If I was John Harbaugh, I’d want the ball first. I’d want to set the terms and conditions of the football game right from the start, not in fine print but in a bold statement the whole stadium can see.

Second Down: Henry vs. Barkley takes center stage

Have we ever seen a running back battle this exciting before? The closest thing I can remember is Jamal Lewis vs. Eddie George in the ol’ AFC Central days. It’s the heavyweight fight of running backs: Over in this corner we have Derrick Henry. He has 1,325 rushing yards on the year and 13 touchdowns. He averages an even six yards per carry and his longest run was an 87-yard opening stomp to the end zone against the Buffalo Bills. In the other corner we have Saquon Barkley, with 1,392 yards and 10 touchdowns. He’s averaging 6.2 yards per carry with a long run of 72 yards. I want a good clean fight, let the best running back win.

While Henry is elusive and fast, he’s an old fashioned running back who has brute force and a frightening momentum. Barkley is the perfect modern day running back and he makes more of an impact in the passing game than Henry does. While the Ravens have Justice Hill as a counterpunch to Henry, Barkley does everything himself. In fact, the offense flows through the threat of what Barkley brings to the table. Barkley and Henry have a similar amount of rushing attempts but Barkley is a featured element of the Philadelphia passing game. Barkley has 223 carries and 27 receptions while Kenneth Gainwell has just 47 rushing attempts and seven receptions. The division of duties between Henry and Hill is what makes the Ravens backfield strategy different. Hill only has 40 rushing attempts but he has 33 receptions on the year.

This is a game the Ravens didn’t want Roquan Smith to miss. The big plays could very well come out of the backfield in this game. The Ravens have a fierce fire truck while the Eagles have an elusive sports car. Which running back will make the biggest difference?

Third Down: No Ja’Marr Impression from A.J.

The Ravens have had problems with big-bodied star wide receivers. Davante Adams had nine receptions for 119 yards and a touchdown when the Las Vegas Raiders came to town. Ja’Marr Chase though, that’s a different story entirely. Chase had 10 receptions for 193 yards and two touchdowns in round one against the Bengals. In the second meeting Chase made that look like child’s play, with 11 receptions for 264 yards and three touchdowns. Halloween was over a month ago, the Ravens can’t let A.J. Brown come to the game as the Eagles’ version of Ja’Marr Chase.

The big key for defensive coordinator Zach Orr is to not leave Brown on an island. Brown is a true number one and that means it’s going to take more than one player to adequately account for him down the field. The key might be living with limiting Brown rather than stopping him dead in his tracks. The Ravens just have to prevent him from taking over the game. Brown is good for five or more catches a game; in fact he’s had no less than five receptions in the eight games he’s played this season.

It’s not about the number of receptions, it’s what he does when he snags the football that counts. A good goal for the Ravens is to replicate his lowest statistical output on the year, which was five receptions for 65 yards against the Washington Commanders. In that game Brown got 25 of those yards on one play, showing how hard it was for him to be his normal self down the field most of that game. The Ravens have to be mindful of keeping things in front of them and not getting gashed by the big play. The Ravens can win if Brown has his average output but they’ll be in a pickle if he puts up Chase-like numbers against them.

Fourth Down: Jackson Showcase

You can make an argument that the Ravens hosting the Eagles makes for the best game of the week; it’s clearly the biggest game of the 4 pm slate. There will be a ton of eyes on this game. The Eagles are in the battle for the top seed with the Detroit Lions, while the Ravens are in a tight divisional race with the Steelers. This battle has more appeal than the Rams vs. Saints or the Buccaneers vs. Panthers. This is basically a night game considering it gets dark before five this time of year.

There’s a narrative brewing that Jackson can’t get it done when it matters most. It’s a half-baked narrative based on a combination of disappointments from the playoffs and battles against the Steelers and Chiefs. This narrative ignores the fact that Jackson has record numbers on Monday Night Football. This narrative ignores the fact that Jackson wins about 70 percent of his games and that he’s only lost to an NFC team once. Beating Josh Allen’s Bills seemed like a big deal, and it’s not like the Ravens can’t win against tough competition. This is the type of game that Jackson tends to shine the brightest in: night games in a big spot. Jackson is coming off a game where he only had six incompletions and had two big touchdowns against the Chargers. This is the type of game that could get Jackson back in the driver’s seat for his third MVP award.

The Ravens will need Jackson to be on his A game. They probably won’t be able to beat the Eagles if Jackson doesn’t have one of his strongest games of the season. This could be a lot like the Ravens’ battles with the Bengals have been: a shootout that requires an MVP performance for the Ravens to win it. Expect Jackson to come out swinging.

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Source: https://russellstreetreport.com/2024/12/01/four-downs/four-downs-with-focus-on-rbs-qb-wr-play-could-decide-ravens-eagles/