BATTLE PLANS: How to Beat Josh Allen & the Bills Offense

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Taming the Heavy Hitters

Like the Ravens, the Bills love to use heavy and jumbo personnel to work advantages on the ground and through the air.

Coming into the season, Baltimore’s plan was to primarily stay in nickel and move Kyle Hamilton into the box when opponents brought in extra blockers. His ability to play downhill against the run while matching up with tight ends in coverage can theoretically eliminate an offensive personnel advantage.

However, the Ravens struggled to defend downfield passes out of single-high looks, forcing Hamilton to increase his safety snaps (26.3% before Week 10, 70.0% since) and average depth of alignment (5.3 to 9.5 yards). That has helped the Ravens keep the top on opposing offenses, so Hamilton should stay deep on Sunday, forcing other players to step up.

The Bills use plenty of two-tight end sets with Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox, but they’re willing to go even bigger with a fullback and/or jumbo personnel (six OL). FB Reggie Gilliam has tripled his snap share (6.6% to 23.2%) since the Bills’ Week 12 bye, lining up both on the line of scrimmage and in the backfield. The Bills also lead the NFL in jumbo personnel usage (14.9%), efficiency (5.8 yards per play) and scoring (14 touchdowns), primarily with Alec Anderson on the field.

The Ravens will try to stay with nickel personnel against two-tight end sets, trusting their playmakers in the secondary to add enough support against the run. That will be tougher against the Bills’ bigger sets, which will force Baltimore into base personnel.

But it’s not as simple as bringing on an extra linebacker or defensive lineman to stop the run, as the Bills are more than willing to use the extra blockers to protect the pocket in the pass game. Their 24.4% pass rate out of jumbo sets ranks fourth in the NFL, while 26.2% of Gilliam’s snaps since Week 12 have been pass plays.

Zach Orr has to get creative with his base personnel. Typically, the Ravens run a 3-4 which should feature Kyle Van Noy and Malik Harrison as outside linebackers who can play the run while dropping off to cover the flats and spy Allen. Rushing three may give the Bills’ OL a huge advantage, but it will give the Ravens an 8-4 advantage in coverage. If Allen starts to scramble, the OLBs can close in for a minimal gain. Orr can also bring out jumbo 4-3 formations with Nnamdi Madubuike playing as the strong-side edge with Harrison playing downhill behind him.

Hamilton doesn’t have to stay at deep safety all game, either. He can come down into the box to make plays in the run game with the option to bail out into coverage post-snap.

D-Line Discipline

The Ravens’ defensive success in Week 4 started in the trenches, racking up 14 pressures and holding the Bills to just 3.5 yards per carry.

Buffalo’s offensive line has improved greatly since then and will enter Sunday’s game having played 79.1% of the team’s offensive snaps together, the second-highest rate of any OL. They are, obviously, even more formidable when they bring a sixth lineman on the field, which they use not only to overpower opposing defenses, but to deceive them as well.

James Cook led the NFL with a 54.6% rate of running to the weak side with 1.7 yards before contact per carry compared to 1.0 on the strong side. The Bills will frequently stack blockers to one side of the formation and run Cook to the weak side in an effort to get him out in space where he can make a defender miss and take off for a big gain. Cook’s eight touchdowns running to the weak side ranked fourth in the NFL.

The Ravens have been excellent at defending the weak side this year because their linebackers trust the d-linemen in front of them to hold the point of attack. Opposing ballcarriers have recorded 3.6 yards per carry (fourth-fewest) and a 28.2% success rate (second-lowest since 2019) when rushing to the weak side against Baltimore. Roquan Smith (and whoever is playing next to him) can read the running back and flow to the ball instead of overcommitting to fill gaps. This is where the jumbo 4-3 sets can come in, adding more heft to the strong side with Madubuike without leaving the weak side exposed.

The Bills will also use Allen’s legs on designed QB runs, so edge defenders need to stay disciplined in their ‘surf’ technique against read-options. Again, the Ravens’ safeties (and Marlon Humphrey) will play a big role in run defense when Buffalo tries to change the math by using Allen as a ballcarrier.

Eyes on Allen

Of course, Allen is at his most dangerous when scrambling. He ranks in the top-five in scramble rate (19.2%), yards per attempt (9.0), rushing yards (383) and rushing touchdowns (three) this year. He especially loves to scramble to the right sideline where he can look for a big play downfield, like his 52-yard completion to Khalil Shakir in Week 4. Including that play, he has completed six of his seven passes for 118 yards and three touchdowns when within a yard of the sideline in his career, while the rest of the NFL has completed just one of 16 such attempts.  Allen scrambled just twice in Week 4, but he’ll be looking for more opportunities to do so on Sunday.

The Ravens have largely contained opposing scramblers this year, holding them to just 5.2 yards per attempt (seventh-lowest) and keeping them from crossing the line of scrimmage (71.3%, second-highest). Even when quarterbacks do cross the line of scrimmage, they average just 6.7 yards per scramble (10th-lowest).

Allen, however, can be a different beast. Corralling him requires a coordinated rush plan, starting with consistent pocket-pushing by interior rushers. Closing down the space in front of Allen makes it harder for him to pull in edge defenders by feinting upfield before escaping to the outside. Those edge defenders need to stay disciplined, too, working to close the pocket in on Allen without letting him get outside of them. The entire pass rush needs to keep their eyes on the quarterback to keep him from slipping by.

Orr primarily uses four rushers (76.3%, fifth-highest) and ranks first with 41 sacks and seventh with a 42.8% success rate allowed on such plays. He also runs simulated pressure at a league-leading 3.1% clip with top-10 rates of creeper and dropped defenders from the line of scrimmage. The Ravens also rank third in disguised coverage rate (43.5%) this season.

Those elements aren’t new to Baltimore’s defense, but it’s all about the ability to marry them together cohesively. Take a look at this example from Week 4:

Fun sim pressure from the Ravens D on 3rd down from last time. Taking away throwing windows while keeping eyes on Allen. pic.twitter.com/1KUEYBwvLR

— Mina Kimes (@minakimes) January 15, 2025

Two second-level defenders fake blitzes and drop into coverage, as does Madubuike. Allen, initially seeing a blitz, is looking for his hot throwing lanes, which are taken away by the dropping defenders. However, the offensive line already moved to block them, opening up winnable 1-on-1 matchups for other rushers.

Allen is still, however, able to escape to the sideline and unleash a pass downfield, which is why the second level must be disciplined on extended plays as well. If all of them follow Allen, he’ll be able to find an open receiver. In this example, the Ravens nail it. Smith is willing to let Allen try a risky cross-body chuck and vacates his zone to stop a potential run. Hamilton, meanwhile, stays aware of Allen’s propensity to look down the right sideline when he scrambles. And way downfield, Nate Wiggins is constantly looking back at Allen so he’s prepared when the ball is coming.

That’s what the Ravens need to do on Sunday: coordination and discipline at every level. If those scramble opportunities are neutralized, the Bills lose the most explosive element of their offense.

1-on-1 Matchup: OLB Kyle Van Noy vs. RT Spencer Brown

Van Noy dominated Spencer Brown in Week 4, notching two pressures and a sack in just 11 matchups. Brown had shut out opposing rushers heading into that game, and he’s been excellent since with a 4.8% pressure rate (second-lowest among right tackles).

Van Noy recorded just one sack in Weeks 5-11, but has heated up since with 5.5 sacks in the last five games of the regular season. He was surprisingly quiet in the Wild Card round, but will be crucial to containing Allen on Sunday.

More than two-thirds of Van Noy’s snaps have come as the left edge defender, per Pro Football Focus, including 81.4% in Week 4. That’s because Van Noy’s experience as an off-ball linebacker and discipline off the edge make him excellent at limiting opposing scramblers. He needs to hold his rush path without getting too tight or wide, which will open a clear gap for Allen. When Van Noy does beat Brown, he has to close down on Allen and push him towards other defenders instead of overcommitting and letting him run free.

Van Noy also adds to the defensive chess match that Orr will bring. If he racks up early wins against Brown, the Bills may bring help to his side. Van Noy is no cornerback, but he’s better in coverage than the average edge rusher, allowing him to drop into coverage with overload pressure on the other side.

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Source: https://russellstreetreport.com/2025/01/18/ravens-battle-plans/buffalo-bills/