Scorching Hot Payrolls Smash Estimates As US Unexpectedly Adds Massive 256K Jobs In December As Unemployment Rate Drops
With consensus expecting a 165K print today, and the whisper number coming in about 20K higher at 187K, traders were expecting a cooler than last month’s 227K – but not too cool – and certainly not hot, jobs number this morning. Instead they got a red hot print at 256K, nearly 100K higher above the median estimate of 165K, with just one forecaster (Bloomberg’s econ team) expecting a higher number at 268k.
The beat, which as noted was higher than all but one forecast, was a 4 sigma beat to estimates.
The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for October was revised up by 7,000, from +36,000 to +43,000, but the change for November was revised down more, by 15,000, from +227,000 to +212,000. With these revisions, employment in October and November combined is 8,000 lower than previously reported.
The number of employed workers surged from 161.183 million to 161.661 million, up 478K, while the number of unemployed workers dipped by almost 250K, from 7.121 million to 6.886 million, a drop of 235K, leading to both a convergence in the spread between the number of payrolls and Americans employed, and a decline in the unemployment rate.
Indeed, just in case the smoking hot payrolls print wasn’t enough, the unemployment rate should have ended any hope of a rate cut in the coming quarters, as it printed down to 4.1% from 4.2%, below estimates of a 4.2% print. The unemployment rate for Whites (3.6 percent) edged down in December. The jobless rates for adult men (3.7 percent), adult women (3.8 percent), teenagers (12.4 percent), Blacks (6.1 percent), Asians (3.5 percent), and Hispanics (5.1 percent) changed little over the month.
The underemployment rate, tumbling to 7.5% from 7.8%, and a 6 month low, was even hotter.
In fact the only aspect of today’s report that was not red hot, was average hourly earnings, which at 0.3% MoM came in line, and in fact missed fractionally on the YoY, printing at 3.9%, down from 4.0% and below estimates of an unchanged print.
Developing.
Tyler Durden Fri, 01/10/2025 – 08:43
Source: https://freedombunker.com/2025/01/10/scorching-hot-payrolls-smash-estimates-as-us-unexpectedly-adds-massive-256k-jobs-in-december-as-unemployment-rate-drops/
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