Demographic Doom: Japan’s Birth Rate Falls To The Lowest In 125 Years

The number of babies born in Japan last year fell for a ninth straight year to the lowest level on record stretching back 125 years, according to health ministry data released Thursday.

The 720,998 babies born in Japan in 2024 was a drop of 37 thousand, or 5%, from the previous year, according to the Health and Welfare Ministry. It was the lowest number of births since Japan started taking the statistics in 1899.

The result, which includes babies of foreign nationality born in Japan, is 15 years ahead of the forecast for reaching that level. The birth rate for just Japanese nationals is expected to fall below 700,000 for the first time when it is published later this year. The faster-than-predicted decline suggests government measures have completely failed to address the country’s fast-aging and declining population. 

At the same time, the number of deaths hit a record just above 1.6 million, pushing the ratio of deaths to births above a shocking 2x for the second straight year, virtually guaranteeing demographic doom for Japan.

“We believe the declining births has not been effectively controlled,” Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi told reporters, adding the government will steadily pursue expanded childcare programs and subsidies for childrearing households, while promoting salary increase and support for matchmaking effort.

Japan’s dismal demographic data come just as South Korea reported that the number of babies born in that country rebounded for the first time in nine years in 2024, a result partly attributed to an increase in marriages among couples who delayed weddings during the COVID-19 pandemic.

The Japanese survey Thursday also noted that the number of marriages last year was 499,999, an increase of 2.2% on 2023 when a 90-year low was recorded.

Experts say improving outlook for the economy, jobs and gender equality is key to encourage young people to marry and have children. And even though the Japanese economy has allegedly been “improving”, the fact that prices have soared the most in decades has likely snuffed out any marginal desire the youth may have had to procreate as it has not been more expensive to have kids this century.

Surveys show that many younger Japanese are reluctant to marry or have families, discouraged by bleak job prospects, the high cost of living that rises at a faster pace than salaries and corporate cultures that are not compatible with having both parents work.

Japan’s population is projected to fall by about 30%, to 87 million by 2070, when four out of every 10 people will be 65 or older.

Commenting on the demographic death of Japan, and really every Western “developed” nation, One River’s Eric Peters muses that “if we can simply stave off a war with China and Russia for a couple decades, their youth will be too busy changing adult diapers to pick up rifles…. in 10yrs, both China and Russia will suffer 5% population declines. In 25yrs China will shrink by 13%, Russia by 14%. In 50yrs, China will shrink by 28%, Russia by 30%.”