European Reality Check: Without The US There Is No NATO And No Ukraine

Is the rest of the world entitled to US money and US security?  This is the question that’s never asked when the establishment media rages about Donald Trump’s opposition to continue the status quo in Ukraine.  Consider for a moment the situation from the perspective of friends (allies).

Imagine a wealthy man is approached by his friends often for loans which these friends rarely pay back.  He obliges out of generosity, but begins to suspect his friends are only interested in his wallet.  So, he makes an announcement that he’s trying to get his finances in order and will not be lending any money for the next 90 days.

Do his friends respond with understanding?  No.  They call the man a criminal and cry endlessly about how their families will starve and the world will fall apart if he doesn’t keep filling their bottomless gullets with cash.  They even suggest he is deserving of retribution for daring to ask them to support themselves.

With friends like these, who needs enemies?

This has been the core dynamic between the US taxpayer and the rest of the western world for many decades.  The level of reliance that Europe has had on America is staggering.  The amount of funding that crosses the Atlantic every year to keep “allies” well fed and protected is immense.  Most of the population isn’t even aware of how unbalanced the relationship is between America and the rest of the world.  To illustrate lets look at one aspect of the US vs European relationship:  Defense spending.

Well before the fireworks at the White House between the Trump team and Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky European governments were increasingly discussing the possibility of an “EU army” and a NATO without US involvement.  UK officials along with those in Germany and France have been playing with the notion of boots on the ground in Ukraine, an action which would no doubt precipitate WWIII with Russia.  

Political leaders and media proponents have been flooding social media to show support for Zelensky as the new savior of the EU and many have suggested that Europe can easily fill the void that the US leaves behind.  This is dangerous delusion. 

For example, the US represents around 70% of the entire annual combined defense spending of NATO countries.  No other nation comes close.

In 2023-2024, this expenditure amounted to over $860 billion. The closest NATO member in terms of budget for the alliance is Germany with $68 billion.  NATO funding is included in America’s total defense spending package.

According to RAND Corporation’s Defense Spending Index, the US carries 47% of the burden share, vastly outweighing any other NATO member.  While NATO’s official budget is $3.5 billion, this does not represent the burden share if NATO goes to war.  Members with the largest armies and spending the most on defense will be expected to expend the most resources in a conflict. 

The media consistently misrepresents the NATO spending imbalance by comparing NATO fees as a percentage of GDP.  This is nonsense. The sheer amount of defense spending is what matters, not the ratio to GDP.  When examined in true terms there is no argument to be made – The US is essentially the military cash cow for the entire western world.  Without the US there is no NATO.

When it comes to Ukraine the waters are more muddy but the conclusions are the same; the US is expected to bear the brunt of the burden.  US aid to Ukraine so far ranges from $120 billion to $180 billion depending on the source.  Zelensky claims that $100 billion of this money “never reached Ukraine”.  There is no verification of this either way.  For now let’s assume Zelensky is misinformed.  

A graph of total expenditures between the US and other western nations shows the EU with a large amount of aid, but take a closer look at military commitments and it’s clear that the EU has spent a minimal amount on Ukraine’s actual defense.  The US is the primary provider of weapons, ordnance and other equipment used to actually fight the war.  Without the US, Ukraine’s defenses will suffer an expedited collapse.

To be clear, Ukraine is not entitled to US tax dollars or US military aid.  Europe insists that the war must continue even without US help, but their ability to fund and fight the war is limited.  They would trigger WWIII in the process, and they would lose.  The belief that more money or more armaments will prevent a Ukraine loss or land concessions to Russia is irrational.  Ukraine’s biggest problem is manpower, not money, and no amount of money is going to triple Ukrainian forces on the eastern front. 

A peace deal should have been negotiated a long time ago.

For now it appears that the European elites are frantically trying to rally public support around extending the conflict and forming a centralized EU military.  This will take them years and it will never come close to the same funding levels that the US provided.  Not to mention, younger native born Europeans have no interest in joining to fight. 

The western split over Ukraine is a profound event in history.  Some will say it was the moment the US “abandoned their allies” and let Russia win.  Those with sense will say that this was the moment the US stopped contributing to the problem and offered a solution while Europe foolishly refused to listen.