Tesla 2025 sales target gets tepid take from Wall Street analysts

A number of Wall Street analysts have shared their predictions for Tesla’s 2025 sales target. Most Wall Street bets have grim forecasts for Tesla’s performance this year.

According to analyst forecasts gathered by FactSet, Tesla is predicted to sell 2.07 million vehicles in 2025, up by 16% compared to its 2024 sales figures. For comparison, Tesla delivered 1.7 million vehicles last year, slightly below the 1.8 million cars it delivered in 2023.

Based on analyst predictions, there are four main reasons Wall Street has a pessimistic outlook for Tesla’s sales in 2025.

Trump Ends US EV Incentives

First, analysts argue that Trump’s promise to roll back policies that boosted electric vehicle (EVs) sales in the United States could affect Tesla.

“Trump 2.0 opposition to EV incentives has hit 2025 volume expectations,” noted Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas.

Barclays analyst Dan Levy estimated that two-thirds of Tesla’s US sales benefit from incentives. However, the Financial Times noted that Trump’s changes to EV subsidies in the US would likely take effect by 2026. Levy predicts that Tesla will see a boost in sales in the second half of 2025 from buyers who want to benefit from the subsidies.

However, a few Tesla investors and supporters have argued that the company doesn’t need incentives to sell EVs. Tesla CEO Elon Musk has long argued that there should be no incentives to boost EV sales.

Competition from China

Chinese EV companies have become an increasing threat to markets in a few countries. With Trump ending EV sales, Chinese car importers are expected to gain a price advantage.

EVs produced in China tend to be priced lower and more affordable in other markets. Europe, Canada, and other countries have implemented subsidies on Chinese EV imports to even the playing field for domestic car manufacturers.

Besides price, Chinese EVs offer better technology, giving them an edge against competitors. Tesla’s technology can meet eye-to-eye with Chinese EVs, which may outweigh any price differences.

Elon Musk and Trump’s Relationship

Analysts also believe that Trump’s trade policy might affect Tesla’s 2025 sales forecast, given Elon Musk’s close ties to the current President of the United States.

Besides Musk’s proximity to Trump, he has also become more vocal about British, Italian, and German politics. Ginny Buckley from Electryfing.com noted that Musk’s recent political zeal might turn some people off and affect Tesla sales.

“Tesla was a market leader, and still is in many ways, but people are getting turned off,” Buckley said.

Tesla’s Car Fleet

Tesla analysts also argue that the company’s vehicle offerings are starting to get stale. Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas thinks excitement for the Cybertruck will drop this year. However, the new Tesla Model Y may reinvigorate the company’s lineup.

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