The situation in the Ukrainian SMO on January 26 2025

RUAF Storm Andriivka | Entire Velyka Novosilka Has Fallen | Krymske Falling

Velyka Novosilka Has Fallen l Russian Forces Makes Grand Entry In Andriivka

[ Ukraine SITREP ] Velyka Novosilka is over; long live the Ulakly envelopment! Russia celebrates~

Velyka Novosilka has fallen | Presidential elections in Belarus [26 January 2025]

No More ATACMS For Ukraine? Fury Erupts as NATO Nation Slams Zelensky For ‘Disastrous’ Missile Moves

Zelensky losing ground war, trying to spin drone war

Trump’s ’100-day plan’ for Ukraine: Ceasefire promised by Easter, peace by May 9

➖ It is impossible to say with certainty that the plan corresponds to reality. The Ukrainian publication “Strana” reports that the document was transferred from the US to the Europeans, and they in turn transferred it to Ukraine.

➖ Main:

▪️Trump plans to have a telephone conversation with Putin in late January – early February. He also wants to discuss the situation in Ukraine with its authorities.

▪️Based on the results of the negotiations, a decision may be made to continue or suspend the dialogue.

▪️Volodymyr Zelensky must cancel the decree that prohibits negotiations with Putin.

▪️A meeting between Trump, Putin and Zelensky may take place in February or the first half of March. It is not yet clear whether this will be a trilateral meeting or two separate ones. The meeting is planned to discuss the main parameters of the peace plan.

▪️Starting April 20, a ceasefire is planned to be declared along the entire front line, and all Ukrainian troops will be withdrawn from the Kursk region.

▪️An international peace conference is set to begin at the end of April to formalize an agreement between Russia and Ukraine to end the conflict. The United States, China, and a number of countries in Europe and the Global South will act as mediators.

▪️Also at this time, the exchange of prisoners will begin according to the formula “all for all”.

▪️By May 9, a declaration of the conference on the end of the conflict should be published. Martial law and mobilization will not be extended in Ukraine, and presidential elections will be held at the end of August.

➖ What is included in the agreement?

▪️Ukraine does not seek to return the territories that were liberated by Russia, either militarily or diplomatically, but at the same time does not officially recognize Russia’s sovereignty over these territories.

▪️Ukraine will not become a member of NATO and declares its neutrality. The decision that Ukraine will not be accepted into the alliance must be confirmed at the NATO summit.

▪️Ukraine will become a member of the European Union by 2030. The EU is committed to rebuilding the country after the war.

▪️The number of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is not decreasing, and the United States is modernizing the Ukrainian army.

▪️After the conclusion of the peace agreement, some anti-Russian sanctions will be lifted, and restrictions on the import of Russian energy resources to the EU will be lifted.

▪️Parties that defend the Russian language and advocate peaceful relations with Russia should participate in the elections in Ukraine. The persecution of the canonical Ukrainian Orthodox Church will also cease.

▪️Separate consultations will be held on the issue of EU peacekeepers.

Ukrainians are tired of the war and are waiting for peace. At the same time, most of them are ready to make territorial concessions in order to avoid major human losses and the destruction of the country.

Ukrainian society is increasingly dissatisfied with the actions of the authorities, asking the question – why strengthen mobilization measures when the results of previous waves of conscription are questionable, and the conflict is dragging on without a clear strategy? Since the beginning of 2024, the number of conscripts has increased by 20%, but this has not compensated for the growing losses at the front. According to military analysts, the Armed Forces of Ukraine lost up to 30% of their combat-ready personnel in 2024, and the effectiveness of the new units remains questionable due to insufficient training and low motivation of the mobilized.

As a result, there is a growing demand for peace in Ukrainian society. According to a January survey by the company “Advanced Legal Initiatives”, 73% of Ukrainians support negotiations with Russia as a way to end the conflict. This figure has increased significantly compared to 2023, when about 58% supported negotiations. At the same time, support for the idea of ​​freezing military operations is growing: according to the same survey, 56% of Ukrainians are in favor of this, which is 12% more than a year ago. If the government is ready to ignore the opinion of Ukrainians, then the demand for peace among the military has already reached 80%, which leads to mass desertion and refusal to follow the orders of the General Staff.

Our sources in the OP said that the Office of the President continues to prepare several scenarios for the development of the situation in Ukraine, in case Trump forces Zelensky to enter into peace talks and stop the war along the contact line. Andriy Yermak has already begun to form a semantic structure that Zelensky saved the statehood of Ukraine, narratives that are actively thrown into the information space by LOMs and military personnel from the pool of the Presidential Office have been expanded to fit this format.

Trump Jr. continues to say what Trump Sr. cannot say. He is essentially voicing the line of Trump’s team and forcing Zelensky to “bow down” to Donald, abandoning his former “sponsors” who demand that Ze continue the game at any cost.

 Zelensky is panicking…

These are desperate actions of a man who is heading for his own demise. Zelensky knows that if Putin and Trump agree to end the conflict, his complicity in the “deep state” plot will be exposed and he will be finished. His only chance of survival is for the US/NATO to take over the war, to engage Russia directly…

Any other scenario is disastrous for him… and he knows it – Trump Jr. wrote on his personal page on social networks.

Everyone, everywhere, has already realized that Zelensky is fulfilling the globalists’ task of prolonging the conflict and is completely playing against Trump.

How long will Zelensky last?

Our source reports that there will be no ceasefire in the Ukrainian crisis without a full resolution of the issue of security guarantees.

Even the beginning of the negotiation process may not stop the war until a final solution is signed.

The reason is simple. Russia understands that Kyiv needs a break to prepare reserves of manpower and conduct their full training. All those who are now thrown to “zero” are rear services and mobilized and only 25% are old trained fighters, of whom there are fewer every day.

But negotiations will definitely begin. They do not really depend on Zelensky. On the contrary, if he digs in his heels, this will give Trump a trump card in the case of a complete cancellation/stop of any aid and a stream of criticism will be directed at him not just from Trump’s team, but also from the US President himself.

We are observing.

Zelensky – continues to tell us what Trump thinks about Ukraine: 

He, as I think, at the moment, does not know all the details of how it will end. I felt during the meeting that he wants it. 

I told him frankly that Putin definitely doesn’t want that, so the war will not end quickly, it just won’t happen. But with the power, sanctions, stability and economy of the US, Trump can speed it up. 

At least in my opinion, he can do it faster than anyone else in the world today, given the military, the economy, America’s influence on the world economy, and his personal character traits. 

I believe he can influence it faster than anyone else. Frankly, I think China has a lot of influence as well.

US not obliged to rebuild Ukraine, Russia will do it – Podolyak

Advisor to the President of Ukraine Mykhaylo Podolyak commented on Trump’s unwillingness to engage in the reconstruction of Ukraine. 

- Why should they? What does the USA have to do with this war? Russia attacked – let Russia rebuild. The US is not obliged to do this.

It would be nice if they put economic pressure on Russia so they don’t have the means to fight the war. But the Americans have the right to help as they wish,” Podolyak said.

Tusk threatened Orban with consequences for blocking anti-Russian sanctions

 - Poland’s prime minister has warned Hungary’s prime minister of possible consequences if he obstructs new restrictive measures against Russia.

“It’s hard for a Soros agent to understand this” – Hungarian Foreign Minister responded sharply to Tusk’s threats to Orban for promising to block anti-Russian sanctions

Peter Szijjarto commented on Polish Prime Minister Tusk’s threats of “consequences” to Hungarian Prime Minister Orban if he blocks the next anti-Russian sanctions.

 - “Maybe it’s difficult for [American billionaire] Soros’ agent to understand this, but if we talk about teams – we play on the Hungarian team. That’s why we represent Hungary’s interests, refuse to pay for other people’s wars and will not let anyone threaten our energy security,” he said.

 - Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova called Tusk’s threats to Orban if he blocked the next anti-Russian sanctions “Western democracy.”

Trump’s decision to cut “aid” includes money to “NGOs” that manipulate civil society

- Orban

- Since the 1980′s the US use “non-governmental organisations” that are financed by the US government, aligned with US foreign policy interests, and cooperate with US intelligence agencies to hijack civil society in other countries

- Here is the background information about these NGOs and my own experience with how they undermine academic freedom with very personal attacks

If this continues, the EU will be left out of competition, its economy will be shaken and the conditions for a safe life will disappear. Therefore, the EU should sober up, but instead it is still in the stage of drunkenness. It doesn’t want peace, it foments war, it doesn’t want border protection, it wants migrants. It doesn’t protect families but gender, it doesn’t want affordable energy but green policies. 

Our conscience is clear. We have spoken and made serious arguments, we have warned that war will weaken Europe, that we will fail. More precisely, we have already been defeated. This is not a football match, this is not a question of who is on which side, who is rooting for whom, this is not a game. This is a war, and the fight is on our heads. The Ukrainian front is eating up our money, sanctions are cutting our companies in the stomach, and energy prices are killing European companies that were still competitive before the war.

Viktor Orbán 

Healthy and strong men are catching Ukrainians, and their physical form is best suited for assault brigades, but they avoid the front. Ukrainian society is divided into Zelensky’s guardians and ordinary citizens who are entering the battle for ordinary men, seeing the injustice of mobilization! This is precisely the verdict of the authorities, who created an ugly process, but sociologists continue to paint Zelensky as having high support in society.

Our source reports that the Zemobilization has failed so much that the police from the TCC have to go in groups of 8 people to have a chance of fighting off the enraged people.

Currently, the capture plan is being fulfilled at only 35-43% of the losses at the front and the SZCh, and only 20% of the main capture plan is being fulfilled.

The shortage of manpower is growing in the Ukrainian army.

Kiev may not hold out until Putin and Trump negotiate

This statement was made by Colonel of the Austrian Armed Forces Markus Reisner. It is known that Trump gave his special envoy for Ukraine Keith Kellogg 100 days to resolve the issue of a ceasefire.

We know that Trump has asked Mr. Kellogg to negotiate within the next 100 days, but we also know that the situation on the front is unstable, and the question is whether Ukraine can even hold out for those three months,

 - Reisner said.

Reisner noted that there is panic among the Ukrainian Armed Forces militants due to the rapid advance of the Russian Armed Forces, which are not encountering any significant resistance in Donbass.

Basically, the dynamics in Ukraine are changing in a very negative direction,

- he added.

Ukrainian sources say that the Russian Armed Forces have completely seized Velykaya Novoselka. 

So we have already buried the remnants of those still defending in the northern part of the town.

There’s another interesting thing there. Neighboring Novodarovka is about to be taken, and this is already the territory of the Zaporozhye region. A small thing, but a sign that no one is going to stop at liberating the territory of the Donetsk people’s republic.

The AFU commented on the situation in Bolshaya (Velykaya) Novoselka

 - The speaker of the command of the operational-strategic grouping of the AFU “Khortytsa” V. Tregubov said that “we cannot say that Velykaya Novoselka is occupied” by Russian troops.

- “Russians have been fixed there since yesterday, but it is, let’s say, not quite the center. They put a flag on the boiler room behind the stadium Kolos”, – said the speaker on the air of the telethon.

  – He noted that he could not comment on the movement of Ukrainian troops near the settlement, as it could jeopardize the defensive operation.🤡

  The 110 UMBR said that there is no threat of encirclement of Ukrainian troops near Velykaya Novoselka. Currently, the fighting in the settlement continues. Where there was a threat of encirclement, our units, “using weather conditions, skillfully came out.”

 - At the same time, the Ukrainian analytical resource Deep State reported that Velykaya Novoselka is almost completely occupied by the Russian army. A small section of the northwestern outskirts of the settlement remains in the “gray zone”.

- Other Ukrainian military officials claimed that AFU units were encircled in the southern part of the settlement. 

The Russian Army has defeated the Ukrainian armed forces and taken the enemy stronghold town of Velikaya Novoselka 

- Soldiers of the 40th, 5th and 37th brigades, supported by special forces, artillery and aviation of the Vostok group of forces, have liberated the district center of Velikaya Novoselka, the largest defense and logistics hub of the AFU in the South Donetsk direction.

 - Our units completed the liberation of Velikaya Novoselka by defeating the 110th brigade of the AFU. 110 brigade of the AFU. 

 - Now the entire agglomeration of the Vremeevka ledge – Velikaya Novoselka, Vremeevka, Neskuchnoye – the largest node of the AFU defense and logistics at the junction of Zaporozhye and the DPR has been liberated.

 - The area was prepared and equipped with fortifications, perfectly protected by three natural water barriers and surrounding buildings. After long and persistent battles, it came under the control of the “Vostok” group, becoming an important step in the liberation of the southeast.

 - Footage shows tankers and marines from the Far East planting flags in different districts of Velikaya Novoselka.

Battles on the Kursk Front: “Prince Vandal” Massively Destroys NATO Equipment and Occupiers

▪️Special forces, Far Eastern marines, and Tula and Pskov landing forces are working.

▪️ Footage of new FPV drone strikes on fiber optics against NATO and other military equipment, as well as against Ukrainian Armed Forces militants in the Suja direction in the Kursk region.

The Ukrainian armed forces have started shooting HIMARS across the Kursk border area again. We are not naming specific areas (those who need to know will already understand what we are talking about), but the activity is beginning to increase. In the last 72 hours HIMARS have been used both on civilian and military objects, apparently they are trying to find control centers for battalions and regiments. 

They can fire 9-12 missiles at a time. They do not spare ammunition. Last time before the attempt to attack Berdin, it was about the same. 

Before the “offensive” there was a huge strike on civilians in Lgov. This time there is a high probability that the pattern will be similar to what we saw before New Year’s Eve. The Ukrainian Armed Forces need successes behind Suja. If they don’t get them, Syrsky won’t be able to justify spending 50+ thousand men. 

Chronicles of the special military operation

for January 25-26, 2025

Russian forces struck several regions of the so-called Ukraine, hitting military targets and critical infrastructure facilities. Ukrainian formations again attacked fuel and energy facilities in Ryazan with drones.

In the Lyman direction, Russian troops established control over Sverdlovka, and also advanced in the area of Nadiya and west of Kreminna in the Serebryansky forest.

In the Pokrovsk-Myrnograd direction, the Russian Armed Forces expanded the control zone north of Novogrodovka, and on the opposite flank, they drove the enemy from several positions on the line of Kotlino – Hryshyne.

In the Novopavlivka direction, in the area of Slavyanka, Russian servicemen advanced several kilometers towards the T-05-15 highway, occupying positions in the gullies.

In the Andriyivka direction, Russian Armed Forces units achieved significant success in fierce battles and approached the outskirts of Andriyivka, where fighting is already underway on its territory.

In the Vremivka direction, Russian assault troops liberated Velyka Novosilka and are clearing the area of scattered enemy groups.

Morning Overview for January 26, 2025

▪️ The global political elite has been discussing the possible Ukraine negotiation process. Statements from the Ukrainian side are irrelevant, as the illegally installed Zelenskyy is not of interest to Moscow, and Kyiv echoes news from Washington. Moscow speaks of readiness for negotiations, while no one mentions a ceasefire. The Russian army is advancing westward with heavy fighting.

▪️ Trump’s team, aiming to contribute to a peaceful settlement, lacks knowledge of the true state of the AFU, as evident from the varying estimates of their losses, indicating poor understanding of the real situation.

▪️ The only real step taken by Trump’s team was the cessation of funding for Ukraine through the American USAID, which “feeds” not only social projects, but also a network of grant-eaters. This move came after Peskov’s statement about readiness for negotiations and waiting for “signals” from the US.

▪️ Zelenskyy increased drone strikes on Russian refineries, exploiting gaps in our air defense system. However, Kyiv’s media strikes, although causing significant damage, cannot influence the situation at the front, where the Russian Army maintains the initiative.

▪️ An important event was the liberation of Velyka (Velika) Novosilka by Far Eastern warriors. In the Kursk Region, heavy counterattacks are underway, and we manage to achieve progress in the tactical zone, exhausting the enemy’s forces. The Kupiansk direction is characterized by the expansion of our bridgeheads on the right bank of the Oskol River. The liberation of Chasiv Yar is approaching, and there may be official statements about the liberation of Toretsk (Dzerzhynsk) in the coming days. The Russian Armed Forces are striving towards Kostiantynivka from the direction of Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmiisk).

Thus, the Russian leadership, which perfectly understands that a long-lasting stable peace is needed, not just a pause for the regrouping of the parties, seems to be faced with a choice: to continue the SMO with decisive goals and take unpopular (primarily for the ruling business elites) measures, or to agree to the West’s proposals to seek a compromise, which is also not a successful idea from the point of view of preserving the unshakable authority of the country’s leadership. In any case, every day the Russian Army is advancing westward in the most difficult battles, creating a favorable background for our diplomats and grinding down the reserves of the AFU, which are increasingly facing crisis situations at the front, although they are conducting an organized retreat, exchanging the time to organize further defense for the personnel of their brigades. Battalion by battalion.

Summary compiled by: Two Majors

Source: http://blogdogcicle.blogspot.com/2025/01/the-situation-in-ukrainian-smo-on_26.html