The situation in the Ukrainian SMO on January 27 2025

Will UKRAINE be at the table for Peace Talks?

Massive Russian Plans For Future Offensive Operations l Whats Next

Zelensky again replaces commander of Ukraine’s key eastern front

In Depth Analysis of Deepstatemap’s Map

Ukrainians launch counterattack in Toretsk [27 January 2025]

[ Ukraine Frontline Changes ] Shocking advance by Russia on Andriivka; End of Battle of V.Novosilka

Ukraine may cease to exist if there are no serious negotiations by summer — GUR chief Budanov in the Rada

▪️Budanov told deputies about the threat to Ukraine’s existence if peace talks do not begin before the summer, writes “Ukrainska Pravda”.

▪️Recently, a closed meeting was held in the Rada, where the command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported to the leaders of parliament and factions on the real state of military affairs.

▪️”At first, the General Staff representatives told a lot, confusingly, but very interestingly. Then there were other different reports. But the answer that I remember most was Budanov’s. Someone asked him how much time we had. And Kirill, with his cold smile, said: “If there are no serious negotiations before the summer, then very dangerous processes for the very existence of Ukraine may be launched,” one of the meeting participants told the publication.

▪️”Everyone looked at each other and fell silent. Probably, everything needs to work out,” the deputy summed up, “a little confusedly.”

▪️Yesterday, the media reported on a “plan to end the war by summer” that has been actively discussed by the Ukrainian elite recently.

The President’s Office began to form the basis for the negotiation track; no one at Bankova last year cared about the opinions of people who wanted peace, but now they are sharply raising this issue.

 The head of the Main Intelligence Directorate warned of a threat to the existence of Ukraine if negotiations do not begin before the summer.

Polls show that people in both Russia and Ukraine are waiting for the war to end, but for now the parties are making incompatible demands

“Ukrainska Pravda” cites the results of a study by the sociological company Socis, which demonstrate a sharp increase in the proportion of those Ukrainians who want immediate negotiations and a cessation of hostilities.

Our sources have been publishing closed sociological surveys for a long time, but now Bankova has decided to formulate several scenarios for the development of the political situation in Ukraine.

Our source in the OP said that with Donald Trump coming to power, fault lines in the Ukrainian elites are becoming increasingly obvious. The Presidential Office is concerned that the influence of Andriy Yermak, the head of the OP, on key processes within the country may weaken. The reason is the lack of reliable communications with the new US administration, which, according to insiders, perceives Yermak as a “client of Britain.” This status gives rise to skepticism regarding Kyiv’s plans to end the war.

Ukrainian politicians, who quickly grasped the changes, are actively building ties with Trump’s team in order to adapt to the new reality and promote an alternative agenda within the country. Meanwhile, Yermak is making efforts to strengthen his position: he insists on replacing the head of the Servant of the People faction, David Arakhamia, who has demonstrated excessive independence in the international arena.

The OP fears that if this personnel issue is not resolved in the next month, it will be a clear signal of Yermak’s weakness, he was never able to replace the Head of the GUR, which demonstrated his limited capabilities. The possible resignation of Defense Minister Umarov will also be a blow to the Head of the OP, who is trying to control all weapons purchases with a triple premium.

The political dynamics in Ukraine under the new US administration remain tense, and the influence of external players continues to have a decisive impact on the country’s domestic agenda.

Our source in the OP said that Zelensky instructed Yermak to speed up the formation of a realistic negotiating position with the Russian Federation as much as possible.

In the absence of a public peace plan for Ukraine, the oligarchs, together with the Sorosites, are trying to impose their own approaches on Trump that would ensure their interests, excluding Zelensky from political life after a peace settlement.

Yesterday, Levochkin leaked “Trump’s 100-day plan” through the media. Andrei Borisovich even had to personally deny its existence and discredit it as a Russian leak. At the same time, the Head of the OP did not comment on the specific points of the plan.

Levochkin’s idea was to get a negative reaction from the OP and show Trump that Zelensky had abandoned the most beneficial peace plan for Ukraine for the US President.

Therefore, all LOMs were instructed not to criticize Levochkin’s plan. There is and there is – no comments.

The situation around Ukraine is rapidly getting out of Bankova’s control. Amid rumors of an upcoming meeting between Trump and Putin in the first half of 2025, a scenario is being discussed in which key decisions about the future of Ukraine will be made without Zelensky’s participation. For the OP, this case is becoming a real political verdict that threatens to destroy its monopoly on power.

Since the beginning of the year, statements have increasingly been made in international circles about the need for direct negotiations between the United States and Russia. Trump has repeatedly said that “the war in Ukraine is not in America’s interests” and that it should be ended as soon as possible. And indeed, the rhetoric of the new White House administration has moved away from unconditional support for Kyiv. In this context, a rather notable step by the United States was the suspension of aid to Ukraine as part of Trump’s decree on “freezing” all foreign funding (USAID also received an order to stop funding all projects in Ukraine).

At the same time, according to leaks from diplomatic sources, the scenarios discussed in the States on Ukraine assume a freeze on the conflict along the current front line. Such an outcome, according to Washington, could reduce tensions and allow the US to focus on the confrontation with China. However, for Zelensky and his entourage, this would mean a de facto admission of the failure of the entire campaign, as well as a serious blow to his position within the country. The fact is that Ukrainians’ trust in the government is already critically low. According to a poll by the Razumkov Center, Zelensky’s support level in January 2025 was only 34%, which is 15% lower than a year ago. If Trump and Putin really reach an agreement without Kyiv’s participation, this could trigger an internal political crisis. And Ukraine’s absence from the negotiating table will not only undermine Zelensky’s international authority, but will also be a clear signal to his political opponents within the country that the government is losing control.

Negotiations to end the war in Ukraine are expected in April-May, before which a ceasefire will be announced, — Hürriyet.

▪️“It is expected that a peace negotiating table will be set up in April-May, which will put an end to the Russian-Ukrainian war,” writes a newspaper close to President Erdogan.

▪️A roadmap is allegedly being created now. “First, a ceasefire will be announced. Then sanctions against Russia will be reviewed,” the article says.

▪️At the same time, “it does not seem possible to make a decision in a short period of time on the lost territories” of Ukraine (that is, they will remain under Russian control).

▪️Trump and Putin want peace, so “Zelensky, whose American support has been cut off, has no way of leaving the table.”

Again we will see a lot of different stories coming out, but a ceasefire before negotiations would be a huge mistake and let the Ukrainian military gain some respite from fighting, and US and European arms would continue to flow in. You think the US and EU will lift sanctions during the ceasefire? No, because they won’t give up leverage and a ceasefire reduces Russian leverage.

“Peacekeepers” who arrive in Ukraine without the consent of the Russian Federation will become a military target 

This was written in his Telegram channel by Ambassador-at-Large of the Russian Foreign Ministry Rodion Miroshnik, commenting on the discussion in Western media on this matter.

“Why consult with them about anything”

Former US Assistant Secretary of Defense Graham Allison thinks the Biden administration’s slogan “nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine” is stupid.

“Why say that, if you’re negotiating with someone who is a weak partner, why not negotiate over their head?” he says.

In his opinion, the deal between Trump and Putin has already been made.

Trump Ready to Negotiate Without Ukraine’ – The New York Times

‘Putin and Trump are gently hinting to each other that the only way to end the war in Ukraine is for the two of them to meet, presumably without the Ukrainians. Unlike Biden, whose mantra has been ‘Nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine,’ Trump is not worried about giving Ukraine a meaningful role in the talks. He has also made clear that he is not interested in the previous administration’s approach of supporting Ukraine for as long as necessary.’

I like this new theme. Deal can get done without Zelensky.

Michael von der Schulenburg, Member of the European Parliament and former UN Secretary General’s advisor: 

   The EU has chosen war, it has chosen confrontation, it has chosen uncompromising. The amazing thing is that this is in the EU, which was once established as a peace project. Today, if you are in the European Parliament, the word peace, diplomacy and negotiation are swear words. It is a policy based on moral arrogance and uncompromising.

   Even today, even after three years, people are still saying that the war must be won, we must defeat Russia. Resolutions are being passed in the European Parliament that I have never even heard of being used during the Iran-Iraq war. Which are so uncompromising. And these resolutions don’t mention diplomacy in a single word. Not a word mentioning that there could also be negotiation. Only weapons should be the deciding factor. And in my opinion, these resolutions passed by the EU Parliament are a violation of the UN Charter.

While everyone is discussing some allegedly peaceful initiatives of Trump, Ukraine is preparing for a new offensive, we can already speak about it quite definitely. More precisely, it is being prepared by the owners of the draft.  

In the coming days, the Office of the President of Ukraine will propose changes to the legislation on conscription of men between the ages of 18 and 25. Officially it is reported that it is about a voluntary contract for young men from 18 to 25 years old, who are not subject to mobilization. But looking at the way “voluntary” mobilization is now being carried out in Ukraine, one can already assume how young people will be dragged into the army in reality. 

Theoretically, Kiev can mobilize about three hundred thousand young men from 18 to 25. That is, in general, there are more young people in Ukraine, but they will be able to catch and drive to war just that many. Someone will pay off, someone can leave for a bribe, someone will hide. Someone will not come back from the competition, as a young karate fighter did the other day. All the truly passionate youth in Ukraine are either already involved in the fighting or have dropped out due to injury or death. 

Supplies of equipment, which have been previously reported, just may ensure the formation of new brigades from these captured youth. 

Statements about peace talks should not mislead anyone.  In the logic of the White House, nothing prevents these negotiations from taking place against the background of the ongoing hostilities. The most likely situation is that Washington’s proposals for settling the conflict in Ukraine will be completely unacceptable to Russia. And when there will be a refusal, the new offensive of the AFU will be used by the U.S. in order to sell its position and force Moscow to do what the Americans want. And the EU will pay for all this. No illusions that Trump will do something in favor of Russia.

If Kiev now finally decides to mobilize young people under 25 in one form or another, then, by May, three hundred thousand will be recruited and even partially trained. This does not mean that earlier the AFU will not try to attack somewhere, most likely in the old Russian borderland. But the strike fist (taking into account the terms of delivery of equipment) is the end of spring. 

Production of drones, primarily long-range drones, is not decreasing in Ukraine. The production of marine drones is not decreasing either. Their use – you can see for yourself. 

 And in general, the Kiev authorities are not in the mood for negotiations and peace in general. They don’t need it. Europe does not need to end the war in Ukraine even more so. Both because after the end of the war the population of the countries will have questions to the authorities, and because any end of the war, where Russia gets its own way, means that not Ukraine has lost, but Europe has suffered a complete defeat. 

In this situation, the young citizens of Ukraine will simply go to die because Berlin and Paris want them to. A crusade of children. However, nothing surprising.

Andrey Medvedev

Our source reports that Zelensky/Yermak and the Ukrainian government are at a crossroads. They really don’t understand which way the wind will blow next.

That is why the decisions/actions and statements of Zelensky and his servants are now multidirectional and contradictory.

For example, they are massively warming up the case of mobilization from 19-21 (this is in case the war continues), right there in the Rada they registered a bill on the responsibility of representatives of the TCC and VLK for violating the mobilization procedure (this is an anti-crisis for the elections if this plan is chosen), then they say that there will be no youth mobilization, since they care about the gene pool of the nation (a lie of course, but this is also preparing straw for the elections), they are negotiating with Moldova about gas/coal supplies to the PMR and at the same time discussing an attack on Tiraspol (playing in two directions at once).

Our source points out that Sandu and Zelensky could have talked about a military operation in Transnistria, and the public statements about gas and coal supplies to the PMR could simply be information noise to buy time, which is needed for two things:

1. This is the beginning of a real energy catastrophe in the PMR

2. For the preparation of military forces of the MD/Ukraine.

Now Moldovan officials are issuing some ultimatums to Transnistria, which so far confirm the version about delaying time in order to provoke a catastrophe in the PMR. If Zelensky and Sandu really wanted to solve the problem, they would have given gas and coal long ago. But they are deliberately delaying time, because they want to arrange an energy catastrophe in Tiraspol.

Let us recall that we wrote that Sandu did not just urgently go to Kiev.

We are observing.

Our source in the OP said that Syrsky asks the Presidential Office to allow the use of weapons during mobilization, military commissars are not able to fulfill the plan even by 20%. A trend of enemies of the people has matured in society, in which the evaders are the victims, and the TCC are the enemies. The General Staff believes that if a general mobilization is not declared now, the Armed Forces of Ukraine will run out of reserves by summer and the front will begin to crumble.

Zelensky’s Kursk adventure became the trigger for the collapse of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, when the brigades simply began to fall apart in the first clashes with the enemy. Having destroyed the best reserves and units on Russian territory, the General Staff is plugging holes on the front with brigades that are unable to withstand the pressure. As Forbes reports, the second Ukrainian Armed Forces brigade in a month “is falling apart as it deploys to the front lines.” We are talking about the 157th mechanized brigade, which is being sent to Pokrovsk.

A relative of one of the fighters told Hromadske that “this recently formed brigade did not undergo the necessary combat training, but it was immediately sent to the hottest spots.”

It is reported that there were no experienced soldiers in the brigade – “all newbies.” Upon seeing their positions near Pokrovsk, many fighters immediately abandoned them. Senior commanders “sensed an impending disaster” and began to separate companies and battalions from the brigade, sending them to experienced brigades to strengthen them, “but this only accelerated the collapse.” 

“The situation in the 157th Mechanized Brigade mirrors the situation in other 150th series brigades. Soldiers were taken during the formation of the unit, hastily transferred to the front and sent without proper training, which led to heavy losses,” writes the military portal Militaryland. 

There are eight such brigades in total, they were formed in 2023 and early 2024 and, after a “lengthy period of preparation,” began arriving at the front since the end of last year, writes Forbes. These brigades are large in number, but “fragile – with inexperienced leaders, too little modern armor and low morale, which often leads to high desertion rates.”

Results of the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ “offensive” on Berdin in the Kursk region. Units of the 9th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 11th Army Corps of the Russian Federation inspect the landing sites where the Ukrainian paratroopers were dropped.

In addition to the older men there are also corpses of very young ones, apparently “busified” quite recently.

Visual fixation by the enemy of our troops in Velikaya Novoselka

   The enemy resource DS published a hysterical material:

   ”Perhaps this is the first time in our memory when officially someone is still “holding” and the Russians are walking around the settlement in Prussian step with flags and launching fireworks… (p.s. First time 🤭) 

 - In general, sometimes the loss of large settlements is given the opportunity to be reported to official spokesmen to communicate this to the public as they see fit for a good cause. This is perceived as a demonstrated ability to put noodles on their ears while the enemy is being recorded by other monitoring groups.”

  “Lies will ruin us all. At first, though, the neighboring units, and then society.”

Battle for Toretsk: Russian army storms last nodes of enemy defense

 - Russian troops are continuing their attacks on the northern outskirts of the city, while fighting is going on south of the Fomikha mine heap, for the Toretskaya mine and the village of Krymskoye. In the latter, our units are pulling up forces in the southern part to take the rest of the settlement and put pressure on the Toretskaya mine and its spoil heap.

 - “On the northwestern outskirts of the city, the 132 brigade of the Russian Armed Forces is pressing along Soledarskaya Street, Tsvetnaya Street and Tavrichesky Lane towards the western forest plantation, in the area of which there are a number of hills, the capture of which would open up the possibility for the Russian army to launch a flank attack on Shcherbinovka and reduce the logistical shoulder,” Ukrainian analysts recognize.

Overnight strikes on enemy facilities

On the night of January 26-27, 2025, Russian troops carried out a comprehensive strike on the facilities of energy, fuel and military infrastructure of Ukraine. 

🔻 Kilchen, Dnepropetrovsk region (23:30 26.01.2025)

As a result of the raid of three attack drones hit the oil depot TOV “ZBER-RESOURCE”, used as a hub for storage and distribution of fuel and lubricants for the needs of the AFU. The facility served as an operational reserve, supplying units in Dnepropetrovsk, Zaporozhye and Nikolaev regions, including refueling columns of armored vehicles and combat aircraft.

▪️ Fixed Damage:

- Complete destruction of two 2,000 cubic meter tanks containing aviation kerosene and diesel fuel, resulting in an uncontrolled fire.

- Two tanks of similar capacity sustained critical damage and the fire is ongoing.

- One 1,000 cubic meter tank (filled with gas condensate) was partially destroyed, cooling is underway to prevent detonation.

According to preliminary data, pipeline fittings, pumping stations and fuel level monitoring systems have been knocked out, making further use of the facility impossible without extensive repairs.

🔻Stetskivka, Sumy region (02:50 – 04:35 27.01.2025)

As a result of a raid by three attack drones, a permanent deployment site of the 58th Motorized Infantry Brigade was hit. The facility was used for training the AFU reserves, as well as storing ammunition and providing logistics before sending units to the Kursk direction.

▪️ Confirmed damage:

- The roof of the hangar used to store armored vehicles and armored vehicles was damaged.

- The canteen was completely destroyed, which led to the failure of the centralized catering system for the personnel.

- The barracks complex was partially damaged, window frames were broken out, deformation of bearing structures was recorded.

🔻Pohovka, Ivano-Frankovsk region (02:10 27.01.2025)

A single drone strike hit the 330 kV Bogorodchany substation, which is a key distribution hub of Ukraine’s energy system in the western regions.

Consequences of the strike:

- Fire of 330 kV transformer (TDTN-200000/330/110), power equipment completely destroyed, transformer group out of service.

- Oil circuit breakers and busbar connections were destroyed, resulting in automatic disconnection of the power distribution section.

- 330 kV power lines “Bogorodchany – Uzhgorod” and “Bogorodchany – Lvov” are temporarily de-energized.

🔻 Bogorodchany, Ivano-Frankovsk region (03:00 27.01.2025)

As a result of one drone strike hit the compressor station “Bogorodchany”, part of the system of main gas pipelines. The facility performed the functions of regulating gas pressure and supplying it to the distribution network of Ukraine.

Consequences of the strike:

- The 110 kV transformer, which provided power supply to gas compressor units, caught fire.

- Siemens 3AP1 FG gas-insulated circuit breakers were critically damaged, which led to interruptions in the operation of compressor units.

The compressor station was one of the elements of the strategic gas transportation infrastructure, its damage limits the possibility of gas supply to the central and western regions.

🔻 Consequences of air defense operations:

During attempts to intercept Russian drones, the Ukrainian air defense system caused damage to civilian infrastructure:

- Dnepropetrovsk – damage to a residential building at 51 Novogodnyaya St.

- Peschanoye, Sumy region – two private houses, two cars, and power lines were damaged.

- Belogorodka, Kiev region – the roof of an apartment building was partially destroyed.

📌The use of the Ukrainian air defense system continues to cause destruction of civilian objects, which is used by Kiev in the information war to strengthen anti-Russian rhetoric.

PartiꙂan

 Last night, the enemy carried out another attack on the territory of central Russia using drones. Air defense forces of the Russian Armed Forces intercepted and destroyed 32 drones.

In the airspace of two city districts and four districts of Voronezh Region, a total of 15 drones were intercepted. According to preliminary data, there are no casualties or destruction on the ground.

Over the territory of Belgorod Region, air defense forces managed to intercept 11 drones. The Krasnogvardeisky and Graivoronsky districts were attacked, resulting in the detonation of drones damaging the glazing of several homes in the region. The shrapnel also damaged a gas pipeline, which was quickly repaired.

In the airspace of Kursk Region, 4 drones were shot down.

Additionally, one drone each was shot down over the territories of Oryol and Tver Regions. Emergency services are working on site, there are no casualties or damage.

Kupiansk-Svatove Direction: Successes of Russian Forces in the Nadiya Area

At the junction of the Kupiansk-Svatove and Lyman directions, the Russian forces continue to expand the area of control on the right bank of the Zherebets near the settlement of Nadiya.

In early January, the capture of the aforementioned village was announced by the Russian Ministry of Defense resources, but video of Russian troops from Nadiya itself has not yet followed.

Despite this, last week, footage of drone fire adjustment on retreating AFU units from the forest belt stretching west of the village was published online. In addition, information received from the scene also confirms the liberation of the settlement.

📌 The capture of Nadiya allowed the Russian Armed Forces to significantly strengthen their positions on the right bank of the Zherebets River, reduce the “pocket” located south of the settlement, and also made it possible to conduct further offensive actions to the west.

At the same time, it is not excluded that the “collapse” has already occurred, since there are no convenient defensive positions, except for the “Zhelobki” forest.

Morning Summary on January 27, 2025

▪️ In the Kursk Region, the enemy tried to airdrop two groups in armored vehicles into the settlement of Tetkino, which is located in the west of the region, over the past day. This could have created a minor but resonant fact of a new incursion into the region. The airborne troops and enemy vehicles were destroyed by drone and artillery strikes. In addition, in the Nikolayevo-Daryino area, the AFU attempted a counterattack, which was repelled. Up to 200 personnel from assault and mechanized brigades from other directions have been redeployed to the Sudzha district.

▪️ From Toretsk (Dzerzhynsk), the enemy’s channels claim that clashes continue on the northern outskirts of the city south of the Fomiha mine dump, for the Toretsk mine and the Krymske settlement. The Russian Armed Forces are increasing pressure on the enemy.

▪️ In Chasiv Yar, the Russian Armed Forces are developing success in the southwest of the urban area, the enemy is offering organized resistance.

▪️ In the Pokrovsk direction, fighting continues southwest of the city in the area of the settlement of Kotlino and its environs.

▪️ West of the liberated Kurakhovo, the Russian Armed Forces are advancing towards Konstantynopil. Battles are underway in the settlement of Dachne, north of the Sukhyi Yaly River, and in the area of the settlement of Zelenovka.

▪️ Velyka (Velyka) Novosilka has been fully liberated (https://t.me/dva_majors/63188), the Russian Ministry of Defense has confirmed control over the settlement.

▪️ On the Zaporizhia Front, units of the 58th Guards Army are conducting limited tactical attacks to identify the positions and forces of the enemy. Drone operators of the 42nd Guards Division and crews of the 136th Brigade of the 58th Army, despite the active electronic warfare of the enemy, carried out a number of tactical group attacks by FPV drones on objects, equipment and personnel of the AFU in the area of Orikhiv, Preobrazhenka and Novoandriivka. The enemy tried to suppress the attacks and brought powerful electronic warfare stations closer to the front line, but they were destroyed by our UAV operators. Through joint efforts, the Russian Armed Forces delivered more than 300 strikes (https://t.me/DnevnikDesantnika/22970) over the past day on 13 settlements where the enemy is deploying manpower, weapons and equipment. The aviation is actively working on the Orikhiv and Kamianka sectors, where the enemy continues to pull up reserves.

▪️ In the Belgorod Region, at night the AFU attacked the city of Graivaron using a drone. In the village of Palatovo, the glazing of two private houses was damaged as a result of the detonation of a drone. Another drone detonated in the village of Vesele.

▪️ In Horlivka (DPR), a civilian woman was injured as a result of a strike by cluster munitions from NATO-caliber artillery.

Two Majors

Source: http://blogdogcicle.blogspot.com/2025/01/the-situation-in-ukrainian-smo-on_27.html