Ravens Playoff Defense Has Historically Low Takeaway Rate in Recent Years

It almost feels like an alternate reality that a defense in Baltimore is no longer a turnover machine in the playoffs. Whether it was the 2000 defense, all-time best in many eyes, or the Joe Flacco-led teams that were carried by aging versions of Ray Lewis and Ed Reed, they all shared the same appetite for destruction: taking the ball away.

The 2008 team for instance wasn’t one of the all-time best Ravens teams, but made it to the AFC Championship on the backs of game-changing takeaways. If memory serves, quarterbacks Chad Pennington and Kerry Collins had been protecting the ball all season. Until they ran into the Ravens. That win against Tennessee in the Divisional Round was mostly about a defense that forced turnovers and prevented the Titans from scoring points.

Fast forward to today, a few days after an excruciating defeat to the Buffalo Bills. This version of the Baltimore Ravens hasn’t generated more than a single turnover in all of Lamar Jackson’s starts and two turnovers overall in eight playoff games (plus one more in the game started by Tyler Huntley) since he became the starter in 2018. Two turnovers? That was the per-game under with those defenses in the Flacco era.

My colleague, Derek Arnold, already covered these shockingly poor results. When you dig in even deeper and compare to the teams the Ravens compete against — Bills, Chiefs, Bengals — the lack of turnovers is even more startling.

Giveaways Combined with Lack of Takeaways Spell Playoff Doom

Courtesy of Truth Bearer on X,here are how many turnovers Patrick Mahomes and Joe Burrow have benefited from:

Lets play another game of name the QB w/ Spoiler Alerts
QB1: 19 playoff games: 22 forced turnovers
QB2: 7 playoff games: 13 forced turnovers
QB3: 12 playoff games: 13 forced turnovers
QB4: 8 playoff games: 2 forced turnovers (worst rate in history / worst margin of error ever) https://t.co/1cYtRVHhAe pic.twitter.com/tXRYYqqbqA

— Truth Bearer (@TruthBearer22) January 21, 2025

Let’s take it even a step further. Here is how Jackson compares with other playoff QBs when comparing defensive turnovers. This is totally unprecedented.

Now for the ultimate reciepts….out of all QBs to start 8+ games, no QB comes close to as few turnovers per game forced by their defense as Lamar. So it’s official that his haters hold him to a higher standard than every QB In history. pic.twitter.com/sfVPXaiI9A

— Truth Bearer (@TruthBearer22) January 22, 2025

Some folks will inevitably read this and think: is this a hit piece on the defense to prop up Jackson after yet another mistake-filled game?

It’s really not. I’ve been outspoken about Jackson needing to protect the ball better and play less hero ball. And he again made critical mistakes against Buffalo. The fumble, where he was able to recover a botched snap, should have resulted in no worse than a sack. Eat that play and you’re very likely up 10-7 with a lot of ballgame left to keep grinding.

But this defense hasn’t held up their end either. When you’re so far in the negative turnover differential column then, yes, the defense isn’t coming through.

They did a fine job against Josh Allen and the Bills in every respect. Held them down from moving the ball. Forced two field goals. And yet they still couldn’t make at least one play to swing the game like the Bills did on the other side of the ball.I get it, turning over QBs like Allen and Patrick Mahomes is a lot tougher than Collins and Pennington back in 2008. They are more aware of how protecting the ball is probably their best avenue to win these games. And Lamar isn’t quite there yet.

However, this is more of a big-picture, top-down view of the defense since really 2014. Not a coincidence by the way, that said year was the last time you saw Terrell Suggs and Haloti Ngata playing together.

They need to make plays, generate turnovers, to have a better shot at winning a Super Bowl, which is the ultimate endgame now.

And I don’t think it’s a scheme issue. This comes down to having one or two more game-wreckers or even ballhawks who have that resume and mentality on that side of the ball. It can’t only come down to Marlon Humphrey saving the day. Can Nate Wiggins continue translating his playmaking ability from college to the pros? Would freeing up Kyle Hamilton to play more of that joker/slot role mean he’s able to focus on taking the ball away?

Eric DeCosta said adding another safety would give the Ravens more “multiplicity” on defense, allowing Kyle Hamilton to move back closer to the LOS.

“Did he make as many splash plays? Probably not. But I’ll take the improvement in the defense.”

— Jonas Shaffer (@jonas_shaffer) January 22, 2025

Up front, adding even a Cory Redding or Trevor Pryce-type would help (Pryce of course being the high end). Names like T.J. Watt and Myles Garrett have been tossed around, but that’s probably wishful thinking.

In 2014, the Denver Broncos were missing something from their defense too, and they signed Demarcus Ware at the age of 32. He helped them to break through and win a Super Bowl. His playmaking ability was just enough and propelled Von Miller to greatness.

Can the Ravens add a piece like that in the offseason? It’s time to find difference-makers who can pick up Jackson and the offense, and even win a playoff game on their own, if it comes down to it.

Again, the defense has been solid against elite QBs.

But turnovers matter if you want that hardware.

This unit needs to start taking the ball away in order to flip the script.

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